From today’s Age, confirmation Tony Abbott will have an uphill battle trying to repeal the Emissions Trading Scheme:
Tony Abbott’s insistence that the election will be a ”referendum on the carbon tax” has been undermined by polling showing that just a third of voters support the Coalition’s plan to abolish it.
Fewer voters want to see the carbon tax removed now than before it took effect on July 1 last year. Nearly half, or 48 per cent, wanted the tax scrapped a year ago.
But a poll of 1009 people, conducted by JWS Research for the Climate Institute, found just 37 per cent of them now supported the Coalition’s intention to wind the tax back in favour of its ”Direct Action” policy, which involves paying companies to reduce emissions.
Even fewer people – 34 per cent – would back an Abbott government calling a double dissolution election to fulfil its ”pledge in blood” to repeal the tax.Fewer than half the Coalition voters would back Mr Abbott taking Australia back to the polls.
JWS pollster John Scales said the Opposition Leader had failed to convince people that carbon pricing should be scrapped because two-thirds of Australians believed climate change was real.
Climate change believers accounted for 66 per cent of voters, compared with 64 per cent a year ago.
As I have been saying for some time, a crisis for Abbott and the LNP is looming:
– Tony Abbott and the LNP would win the 2013 Federal election
– Abbott would look to “axe-the-tax” (price on carbon) in name only, introducing a face-saving sleight-of-hand in but still maintain a price on carbon
– The climate sceptic movement would be bitterly disappointed, as the realisation began to dawn on them that Abbott played the populist hand against the carbon tax in order to undermine the Gillard government’s legitimacy
– For the climate sceptics (deniers) it would be an object lesson in realpolitik.
I suspect the LNP is going to find climate policy just as complicated, if not more so once in office.
One needs real policies then, nor four word slogans. The debate over a price on carbon is far from over: if anything it is going to intensify.
As noted above, the public don’t understand nor want the Direct Action Plan proposed by the LNP.
Nor does it seem they willing to give control of the Senate to Abbott. However, the Coalition have locked themselves into silly “blood oath” giving themselves little to move.
The question is what happens when they can’t “ax-the-tax” what compromises an Abbott led government will be forced to make.
Hang on for the ride, as climate politics is going to get wilder.