Some stunning images that give you an idea of the scale of the fires we are currently experiencing in Victoria:
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[…] 2014/02/11: WtD: Stunning NASA images of Victorian fires: why we are choking on smoke […]
FrankD, in the longer term west Tassie is toast.
The state government put out a report a couple of years ago that modelled climate change in the state down to 10×10 km units. Whilst there are some areas that escape with relatively benign impacts, the west coast is set to lose 30-40% of its summer rain (which will be shifted south beyond the island), even though the annual precipitation isn’t expected to change much. This will still have a profound effect on the south-west world heritage area though, because in summer the hot nor’westerlies come from South Australia and dessicate Tasmania.
Over a few decades of such a regime I expect that the increased frequency and intensity of the wildfire, enhanced by the new summer dessication, will have started to change a lot of the moist cool temperate rainforest to dry sclerophyll forest, or open woodland or even grassland. The 22nd century will see a different west coast to the one that is there now.
The north-west might fair better with precipitation, but even it will be sitting in the path of drying summer winds off the mainland. The east islands might be a more prudent option (they already own Tassie dairy anyway), but you’d need to lose your vowels first. ;-)
Well the long-term forecast in your post made my vowels loosen a little, so thats a start ;-)
The first step is probably changing my name to Ian Snell…that’s a proper New Zealand name, if Roy and HG are anything to go by.
If you’re interested there’s an extraordinary amount of information here:
One correction – I should have said 20-30%. This is no get-out-of-jail card though – it still represents a significant change in the summer climate regime sufficient to change the character of the region.
Victoria, the nation’s dust bowl, has been burnt to a crisp thanks to permanent irrevocable climate change. There’s no longer any value to be gained in living here. It is not a laughing matter.
Trish – if your comment was directed at mine, sorry if the gallows humour missed the mark. I wasn’t trying to trivialise, just redirect my frustration. I spent my first 35 years living in Victoria, and watching from a little further afield now doesn’t make the situation any less…I dunno…depressing is certainly one word.
The area I’m in now has become more bushfire prone over the last decade and seeing (in my observation) more frequent and longer periods of debilitating heat (especially more troughs bringing horrible weather from the northwest). This summer has been unrelentingly awful in my area, worse, IMO, than last years “angry summer”, during which we at least got a few respites between the days of soaring temps.
I’m thinking that if I was going to leave Vic, western Tasmania might have been a better choice, in the long game.
Oh hi, New Zealand,
Sorry, what? The smoke from our barbecue is bothering you? ‘Kay, soz…we’ll try to back it off a bit. Would you like a charred sausage?
Mike, I could be wrong, but I think you’ll find that most parties on the right, claim they have never inhaled and that secondhand smoke is just a UN conspiracy for world domination.
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