Melbournians are used to experiencing “Four seasons in one day” – when the weather swings from brilliant clear skies, to storms and back again. But yesterday was unusual in that we recorded our highest July temperature on record:
It’s official – Melbourne has experienced its warmest-ever July day – but the summery burst was shortlived with storms hitting the city.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Scott Williams said it was an extraordinary day in Melbourne.
“It was our hottest ever July day at 23.3 degrees (at 2.02pm) – 10 degrees above the July average.”
Everyone was talking about the “early summer” and “how unusual” the heat was.
This comes the same year of the Angry Summer, when the entire continent experienced a record breaking heat heatwave.
Unknown to many, and less dramatic, was the prolonged Autumn heatwave that covered most of Southern Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement No.45 details these exceptional conditions:
A prolonged heatwave affected southeast Australia between 2 and 13 March 2013, breaking numerous records, especially for the duration of persistent hot days and nights. The event followed Australia’s hottest month on record in January, and warmest summer on record from December 2012 to February 2013 (see Special Climate Statement 43).
The oceans surrounding Australia were similarly exceptionally warm, with sea surface temperatures also posting their hottest month on record in February, and warmest summer on record. The six months from September 2012 have been characterised by significant heatwaves and record temperatures for the entire Australian region. This heat has continued into March over a very large area of the country.
Hottest summer; an Autumn heatwave and the a winter’s day that felt like early summer.
Welcome to the new normal.
Watching the Deniers 
In the Adelaide Hills where I live July so far has been a lot warmer than average, with plants and animals acting in a way more typical of early spring than winter.
We are now having some extremely wild weather, and perhaps the rest of the month will have temperature closer to average.
It has been freezing here on the Noosa Fraser coast, I have had to wear my winter shorts and t shirts.
the Hovea are already in flower, very early
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/dont-forget-purple-hovea/1460664/
and even earlier this year
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/purple-hoveas-have-bloomed-early-year/1944088/
Normally, I just put on two pairs of shorts for winter……
Noticed Rainbow lorikeets breeding last week. They normally start around August here. Early spring is on the cards.
Another species impact.
Have you ever seen the observation site for Melbourne?
It would have to be one of the worst sited weather stations in Australia. It is only retained because it is a central city site and is much loved by news outlets such as TV and Newspapers. Climate scientists know that inner city sites pose problems for long term climate trends due to UHI and don’t use them for trends or catchy headlines like “highest july temperature on record” It is a problem for many central city stations.
Climate scientists use the Bureau Reference Climate Station Network which are stations with long histories but minimal siting problems.
For Melbourne the nearest Climate Reference Station is Laverton.
Yesterday Laverton recorded a maximum of 21.4 which is 2.1 C below its July record.
Yep cannot fool you deniers, hovea and lorikeets yes, sceptics not so much
Have you ever read the extremely detailed explanation put out by the BOM on how they calculate and report on extreme weather events? It’s not as simplistic as the lowbrow and silly garbage over at WUWT. Watts is wrong and subsequently, so are you. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/events/january-heatwave-methods.shtml
The Melbourne peak “is another unprecedented high temperature event,” Dr Jones said, adding to a national pattern of hot spells every six weeks or so since November last year.
Nationally, Australia’s mean temperatures are running almost 2 degrees warmer than average, placing the month on course to be one of the hottest Julys on record, he said.
The warmth is not confined to Victoria, with Sydney remaining on course for five days over 20 degrees or warmer conditions – the first such sequence in July since 1928. Wednesday was the city’s warmest July day in four years at 24.3 degrees, with 22.6 degrees today and 21 tipped for Friday before a cold front arrives.
Several factors are at play in the heatwave wave, Dr Jones said: “The Australian continent is surrounded by record high ocean temperatures, we know global temperatures are running at near-record highs, and when we see a lack of rain and northerly winds across Australia, we’re getting these spikes in temperatures.”
Do you deny what I wrote about the Melbourne observation site?
Do you deny that BOM uses Climate reference sites for a reason?
Yes I do know about the BOM ACORN data sets and have read the technical reports.
It is because I value quality data that I pointed out that no climate scientist would use poorly sited inner city stations as a basis for trends or headlines like ”highest July temperature on record”.
.
I haven’t even mentioned how it is possible to state “warmest July on record” when it is only the 19th of July.
I did not quote Watts, I used a jpg image which he has on his site. I found it using Google. It was convenient, There are others. A few days ago I used a link from Green Left Weekly! That makes me a rabid socialist?
“Yes I do know about the BOM ACORN data sets and have read the technical reports. ”
and yet you persist. Interesting. Oh and I don’t know what you are. Initially I called you a Poe because I figured nobody could be that stupid. Reassessment may be necessary.
“Climate scientists know that inner city sites pose problems for long term climate trends due to UHI and don’t use them for trends”
Why don’t you let Anthony Watts know that?
give him this while you are at it K largo.
Aus Gov,
Extreme weather events
There is a growing and robust body of evidence that climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Australia has experienced an increasing number and intensity of heatwaves, bushfires, flooding and droughts in recent decades. For example, weather associated with high fire danger has shown a rapid increase in the late 1990s to early 2000s at many locations in south-eastern Australia.[vi]
Individual extreme events occur as a result of a number of contributing climatic factors. While it is difficult to isolate the role of climate change in any given event, long term records demonstrate that we are now experiencing changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.
Recent research through the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) provides evidence that the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) was the worst drought of the instrumental record (since 1865). The Millennium Drought has been at least partly attributed to climate change.[vii]
Early January 2013 saw unprecedented temperatures across Australia with a record breaking seven days where the national average maximum daily temperature exceeded 39 degrees Celsius. On 7 January 2013 a record daily maximum temperature across Australia was reached. The heatwave contributed to extreme bushfire conditions with extensive bushfires across New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.[viii]
maybe Anthony Watts should read a paper by a certain Watts Anthony, showing that siting does not have the expected effect on long term trend :
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015146.shtml
I think he should get lots of new valuable information for him.
Record: July maximum 23.3
Reported: 2.02pm Thursday
Previous record: 23.1C, July 31, 1975
Whew over 0.2C higher than the previous record? I guess the new normal isn’t that bad. At this rate the new record will be 23.5C in 2051!
Considering how quickly the temperature dropped after the cold front moved in it sounds like the heating was partially due to frontogenesis and warm air advection.
Highest monthly average temperature for Melbourne AUS
Jan 1908 31c
Feb 1898 30.2c
Mar 1939 28.9c
Apr 2005 24.1c
May 2007 19.6c
Jun 1957 17.7c
Jul 1975 15.7c
Aug 1982 17.7c
Sep 2006 19.7c
Oct 1940 23.3c
Nov 2009 27.1c
Dec 2005 27.7c
Avg annual temp last 15 years 20.96 (ending 2011)
Avg annual temp first 15 years 19.73 (ending 1870)
1.22C increase in 150 years
Information based on BOM website:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml?bookmark=136&zoom=3&lat=-37.1235&lon=145.2&layers=B00000TFFFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTT&dp=IDC10002-d
Thanks John, very useful.
By the way, July 2013 will likely be Melbourne’s warmest July on record: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3050.latest.shtml and http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
The last 2 days of July will need to be like the 20th and 21st to avoid breaking the record or the forecast will need to be a long way out.
It looks like it will be close to the record if it doesn’t break it. If the days are as warm as forecast and the end of the month is slightly cooler – say 14 and 15 – then it would tie at 15.7C. If the forecast is accurate and the last days of the month are around 16 or 17 then a new record will be set in the range of 15.85 to 16.
Globally June was the 2nd warmest after the 1998 el nino year,
the planet is hotting up, time to change warming to heating.
“say 14 and 15 – then it would tie at 15.7C”
Did you calculate this? By my calculations it would be 15.9C with those days at 14 and 15.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast, Melbourne is expected to set a new record high July average maximum of 15.9 degrees C.
I put all the numbers in Excel and came up with a current average of 15.4C (based on data through 12.4C recorded today) and a projected July average of 15.72. I don’t know if that would result in a new record or a tie since I don’t know if BOM takes averages out just one digit or two past the decimal point.
“I put all the numbers in Excel and came up with a current average of 15.4C (based on data through 12.4C recorded today)”
That’s what I did too but the average of the 1st to the 25th that I got was 15.7 C so I still don’t know how you get that different figure (15.4) and I still don’t know how you got your figure back on the 22nd which was before you knew what the temperature was going to be on the 26th.
“and a projected July average of 15.72.”
I get that too, now. But it changes from day to day. Yesterday’s cooler than forecast 12.4 C and the revisions to the forecasts for the following days brought the expected July average max down from 15.9 C to 15.7 C. One day can make a big difference to expectations.
It looks like Melbourne will almost definitely set a new record for warmest July on record. If the next two days are 15c as forecast then the new record will be 15.8C average which is 0.1C warmer than the previous record.
Melbourne’s new July average maximum record: 15.9 C http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3050.latest.shtml
Who is a clever boy?
not bill
Chris O’Neill says:
July 22, 2013 at 10:18 am
“say 14 and 15 – then it would tie at 15.7C”
Did you calculate this? By my calculations it would be 15.9C with those days at 14 and 15.
Hey dumbass did you miss where I posted this? “If the forecast is accurate and the last days of the month are around 16 or 17 then a new record will be set in the range of 15.85 to 16.”
That was on July 22 and I was right on the mark.
Very clever indeed. If you call being able to put numbers into a spreadsheet clever.
Sorry Chris when I copied the formula from one cell to another it changed the range which is why the figure of 15.4 that I posted was too low. My mistake. Using the correct range I have an average of 15.732 as of today. For the rest of the month I put in the forecasted temps of 15, 16, 14, 18, 15, 16 and show a projected monthly average of 15.719
Standing on the edge of a cliff?
It’s interesting to look at Blair Trewin’s compilation of daily records for Melbourne: http://web.archive.org/web/20100122134226/http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~blair/extremes/melbourne.html (Melbourne Uni kicked it off their site.)
There was just one July day before 1900 (and after 1860) that exceeded 20 C, in 1878, (assuming other cases weren’t beaten by subsequent records). Then there was one in 1903 followed by 1926 and 1934. The next wasn’t until 1975 and then 1994 and now 2013. The records before 1975 were all below 21 C and the over 21 C records were all since and including 1975.
BTW, Blair’s compilation was done in 1998, so records since then are not included.
Yet the warmest month on record was Jan 1908 and second warmest was Feb 1898.
Fascinating.
Yet the equal highest monthly anomaly was Nov 2009, even though January should have the highest anomalies.
Even more fascinating.
Are you implying we should be more concerned with anomalies than actual temperatures?
I find it interesting that the 3 months with the highest average temperature all occurred before 1940.
The anomalies come first with global warming. Don’t worry, you’ll get your new records in the hottest months soon enough.
Why should January have the highest anomalies?
What was the anomalies when the record was set for warmest January in Melbourne’s history?
January has more heating power available than November. It just requires the weather to bring it to Melbourne. Record anomalies are generally higher in summer than winter, with variations of course.
“What was the anomalies when the record was set for warmest January in Melbourne’s history?”
So you don’t want to work it out yourself? Some people have an aversion to work I guess. From up the page:
Jan 1908 31c
Jan average: 25.9C
Anomaly: 5.1C
Is that the anomaly based on current average or the anomaly at the time the record was set? Big difference…
I agree, there has been a substantial amount of climatic warming since 1908.
You should agree – the evidence is right there in the records.
So which anomaly was higher at the time the record was set?
Is there some point to this?
BTW the title of this blog post should be “warmest July day on record”. It’s too early to claim this is the warmest July on record although it is on pace to set a new record.
Quite right Bill.
Incidentally the warmest July on record for Australia was set 40 years ago in July 1973. The second warmest was July 1975.
An the third warmest? July 1915, nearly 100 years ago.
and?
And the title of this blog post is “Melbourne’s warmest July on record: 10c above the average” which is clearly wrong.
and the title of a watts post is, guest post by gavin schmidt which is clearly a lie
Well we already know you don’t have a problem with dishonest titles john.
getting back to the post which the deniers do not wish to accept for some weird reason
“It’s official – Melbourne has experienced its warmest-ever July day”
But it was only the second warmest June globally. So the recovery is on track. 🙂
Why wouldn’t people accept it? What you don’t seem to want to accept is what caused the heat and the fact that it was 0.2C warmer than the previous record set almost 40 years ago. Is that some kind of big deal? It’s weather john. Do you understand the difference between weather and climate?
Yes, *Id* do. You don’t seem able to accept the baseline, climate, has changed.
This isn’t a story about the climate baseline changing but rather about a one-off event caused in part by a cold front moving in. THAT is weather.
None of you regulars has even called Mike out on his erroneous and misleading title. This July is NOT running 10C above average yet the title boldly claims “Melbourne’s warmest July on record: 10c above the average”.
I can only imagine the squealing if WUWT made a similar mistake! I have no doubt that some of the regulars here would be loudly claiming the title was intentionally misleading.
You seem very anxious to declare that the continual resetting of records can’t be a climate change indicator. Why?
How is a 0.2C increase of an almost 40 year old record anything substantial? Particularly seeing how nearby areas didn’t set any records? It was an anomalous record due in part to the cold front moving in.
As I’ve shown in an earlier post, the warmest Jan, Feb, and Mar in Melbourne’s history were all recorded before 1940. One slightly warmer day in July doesn’t compare to the record for the hottest month in Melbourne’s history.
Because it is part of a pattern of record setting.
You call taking almost 40 years to break the record part of a pattern?
No Bill, the pattern of record highs outstripping record lows by 3:1 around the world and where it used to be 1:1 just 40 years ago. Do you want me to refernce the Hansen paper?
“an anomalous record”
I wonder what other sort of record there is.
a broken record….which thread hijackers tend to sound like.
“almost 40 years to break the record”
Since 1860 the record history would have probably included:
1867 18.7C
1875 18.9C
1878 20.2C
1926 20.7C
1975 23.1C
2013 23.3C
Without a warming climate, the record should be broken less and less frequently as time goes by. The fact that record breaking is not becoming less and less frequent is merely consistent with a warming climate.
So you guys insist on trying to make this new record out to be more than it its? Did you notice how long it was that warm? Did you notice how quickly the temperature dropped as the cold front moved through? Do you understand how a vigorous cold front actually releases latent heat in front of it?
This is just like WtD trying to make more out of WUWT not including the NSIDC chart showing STD on the Sea Ice Page. “Much ado about nothing” seems to fit.
Try making a big deal out of important things not trivia.
Just so I get this straight, so, records aren’t records because…
Come on JHS, get with the program. Records aren’t records because it was the cold front watt dunnit. You know? That weather thing, and as the alarmists have been telling us for years, weather isn’t climate! Since the alarmists are always bleating on about climate, these weather records aren’t climate records…durrrrr…and I thought Al Gore was stupid!
Well John Havery Samuel your comment shows that you really don’t get it. It’s not a question of whether it’s a new record or not, it’s a question of whether there’s any significance to that record.
For example, in early May several cities set new records in the upper Midwest part of the United States for all time lowest temperature ever recorded in May. Is that significant? Nope. Although in the case of these cold temperature records the cold was much more widespread than in the case of this singular record for Melbourne, it’s still not significant to set a record like this one. It’s interesting trivia but that’s about it.
“how quickly the temperature dropped”
Yes it dropped so much that the next morning was the equal warmest July morning on record. Yeah, nothing unusual about that either.
WUWT would make a big deal out of the coldest day in 20 years. They wouldn’t restrict themselves to the coldest day in the entire record.
“Try making a big deal out of important things not trivia.”
Try taking your own advice.
“in early May several cities set new records in the upper Midwest part of the United States for all time lowest temperature ever recorded in May”
Which ones and which dates? I can only find some small towns whose records go back less than 60 years:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/
Melbourne’s records go back 153 years BTW.
Wow Chris thanks for that link – I had never seen it before. Very cool tool. So using it I found out that from May 1st to May 7th there were 151 records set in the US for lowest minimum temperature for the month of May.
Thank you so much for illustrating my point so well. These records don’t “mean” anything, they don’t have significance. They’re interesting but that’s it.
Obviously I didn’t go back to see how many years each of those 151 records go back. Since I’m referring to record cold temperature does it matter if it’s 70 years or 100 or 150+?
*NOTE: I shouldn’t have said “upper Midwest” since many of the records were actually in the southern part of the US where cold temperatures are rather rare in May. For example:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 03 2013
…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT MIDLAND…
A RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES WAS SET AT MIDLAND
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 2011. THIS ALSO SETS
THE DATE FOR THE LATEST FREEZE. THE PREVIOUS LATEST FREEZE WAS APRIL 20..1933. THIS IS ALSO THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SINCE 1931.
Their period of record goes back to 1930.
Jesus wept! We’ve got another Worrall.
uki no one said it’s not a new record. Try reading the posts. The issue is whether you can try to discern any significance out of the event.
Do you understand WHY the temperature went up before the cold front passed?
I have already explained how this is significant in that it is yet another record to add to the now long list of new record highs around the world which are outnumbering record lows by 3:1. The local cause of that record high is irrelevant as the same thing could have happened at anytime in the past to create records. You want to isolate this one case and say it isn’t significant and on it’s own it isn’t but the important thing is the long term trend of global records. This one is another piece in the puzzle. You may or may not choose to accept this and that is your prerogative but I’ll be damned if I’m going to give you anymore of my time because you are quite frankly, a wilfully ignorant pain in the arse…right up there with the likes of our former resident ignorant pain in the arse, Eric Worrall. As was the case with him, my 12 year old understands this stuff better than you. Good luck.
Well uki that’s exactly why so many alarmists end up looking dumb. They try to make *everything* that fits their agenda seem important instead of simply focusing on the things that really are important. Or maybe they, like you, simply don’t know the difference or choose not to see it.
Ok, now I’ve got it. Thanks, Bill.
Records are records. But stating a record is part of an established trend is an agenda. Heat records exceeding cold records three to one cannot be openly stated. Australia’s continued resetting of various heat records over the last year cannot be openly stated. No dots shall be joined or its an agenda.
As Oscar Wilde might have said, we now have weather that dare not speak its name.
Well John Havery Samuel again you prove that you STILL don’t get it. It’s a record. It’s interesting. It’s just not significant on it’s own. I never said anything more than that. You sound like a little kid taking it to an extreme that was never mentioned. Can’t talk about records? Of course you can. It’s interesting trivia. What’s silly is trying to make THIS specific record out to be more than it is.
I can’t put it any in any more simple form than that. Try to keep things in proportion. Try to understand what events are significant and which ones aren’t.
Over the last 365 days in the US there have been over 15,000 new high temperature records set and over 11,000 new low temperature records set. Not close to a 3:1 ratio here over the last 365 days but obviously new high temperature records are outpacing new low temperature records.
Oh, you’ve convinced me you get *your* agenda, Bill – and precious little else.
US drought? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
“record cold temperature does it matter if it’s 70 years or 100 or 150+?”
Yes.
“many alarmists”
Who or what are these “alarmists”?
Let me help you out with a definition:
Climate Alarmist: A person or organization that constantly claims that every extreme event is a sign that we are doomed. A hurricane hits? It’s climate change! A new high temperature record is set? It’s climate change! There’s drought? It’s climate change! Record snowfall? Yep, it’s climate change! Streetlamps melted by a fire? It’s climate change! whoops.
A definition note even worthy of a Purdue graduate. Whoops.
“instead of simply focusing on the things that really are important”
Don’t keep us in suspense. What is it exactly that these “alarmists” should be focusing on?
“Climate Alarmist: A person or organization that constantly claims that every extreme event is a sign that we are doomed.”
So nothing to do with people who accept what 97% of climate scientists tell them then.
Chris – no, believing in AGW (or ACC if you prefer) doesn’t make you an “alarmist”. As I’ve said before I agree with the consensus that the earth has warmed and man has contributed to that warming. Alarmists are people that see something and immediately claim it’s due to climate change. A hurricane hits? Must be climate change. A new high temperature record is set? Must be climate change. A streetlamp melts? Must be climate change – except, of course, it wasn’t. Alarmists don’t even seem to care whether their claims are true or not. They’re more interested in trying to scare people into action than accuracy, integrity, and honesty.
Bill regarding your defintIon of ‘alarmist’. Would would you call someone who mentions the worldwide retreat of glaciers, decrease in Artic sea ice cover over time. The number and severity of widefirs increasing, forests being killed by bark beetle infestation, movement of animal populations into areas normally not supporting them?
Stating what HAS happened isn’t alarmist IMO. Trying to find a connection when there isn’t one or where the evidence is suspect can be alarmist though.
As I’ve stated several times it’s not like I don’t know the earth has warmed. That’s well documented. The climate is changing and has changed over the last 150 years.
In the mean time New Zealand ski resorts are enjoying record snowfall:
http://www.newzealandski.co.nz/new-zealand/ski-details/index.cfm/articleId/1703/
All we have to do is raise our mountains by 1,000 metres and our rain deluges will become snow deluges just like in New Zealand.
It’s a good plan. The grape growers have already started moving south due to global warming so they are out of the way.
Largo, ‘Have you ever seen the observation site for Melbourne?’
I wish you would send those posts to the Rainbow Lorikeets. They have read the BOM reports and have started nest building early. They are recent arrivals to our area in Melbourne and didn’t know about your ‘siting concerns’. While you are at it, send to the permafrost, Arctic/Greenland/Antarctic ice caps, bush-fires (including those in London), floods (everywhere) and the world’s glaciers. They must have missed it and have acted rather strangely for no reason.
I can’t understand why you do this. You find something you think is significant, but in reality it is a 100th order issue. But you think it is important and point it out showing you have little ability to evaluate information properly. Get real and look at the bigger picture.
“Largo” does mean slow. (A musical term)
Hey Mike are you going to correct the title of this post? It’s misleading and one might even say “dishonest”.
Only if you don’t read the post.
So it’s okay to have a dishonest title as long as the text is correct?
Is that really what you’re saying?
It’s ok to have an inaccurate title as long as the text is correct.
It works for the mainstream media.
So accuracy and honesty aren’t important?
Interesting perspective.
No, accuracy is important and the post is accurate.
Honesty is something you will have to take up with Watts. Have you ever nitpicked one of his posts this obsessively?
And I bet you have a hotline to Rupert himself complaining about the myriad dishonest articles on Fox and in News Corpse etc etc.
If you had one scintilla of commitment to honesty you wouldn’t have written half the trash you have on this blog.
Go away you loathsome little troll.
(And before you misuse the term, that is not argumentum ad hominem. I am insulting you, not arguing with you)
So you can’t just discuss the topic without resorting to personal attacks and insults zoot?
Oh I can, but I choose not to, because you are a loathsome little troll.
It’s okay zoot, I get it. You can’t debate so you resort to name calling. It’s the tactic of the weak and uninformed.
Not the sharpest knife in the drawer, are you Bill?
Now, tell us again about how you keep Watts honest and about the times you’ve challenged Fox because of their blatant disregard for honesty.
That was the substance of my comments.
Pointing out that you are a loathsome little troll was merely the icing on the cake.
I don’t read or post on Fox so I can’t comment on their honesty. Have you? Nice diversion though. We’re talking about THIS blog. Or didn’t you notice that? It’s obvious you don’t have a problem with the dishonest and misleading title of this post – which has even been reblogged.
That’s okay zoot keep trying to defend the indefensible. You guys constantly obsess with what WUWT posts and pointing out the errors there and yet you give errors here a free pass. Double standard much???
Fascinating as the conversation has been, I find the most interesting statistic the highest Melbourne monthly averages provided by Bill. Five (out of 12) in the last decade. Must be a coincidence surely….
Plants and mossies have bypassed winter here this year. BOM tells me we may get a frost free winter once or twice a decade but we haven’t even come close this year. I’m curious as to how it will impact insect and other populations in spring if the warmth continues.
I was confused by the title too. Climate scientists and those reporting findings and observations are subject to to such intense scrutiny and vitriol. A correction or explanation might be helpful.
Thanks for your blog. Must be hard work at times. Cheers
[…] 2013/07/18: WtD: Melbourne’s warmest July on record: 10c above the average, follows Angry Summ… […]
So now it’s official and Melbourne set a record for the warmest (if you call 15.9C warm…here in San Diego that would be a chilly winter month) on record.
So was it the warmest July on record for Melbourne or was it just the nicest July on record? Did it cost people money or save them money on heating? Was anyone complaining about the warmer than normal weather?
Or to put it more simply – Was setting a record a good thing or bad thing?
If we keep setting warm records in winter for southern Australia then you will get to a temperature range which is above the required chilling hours for the flowering of stone fruit, so enjoy the warmth but be aware of the consequences
retard
or just a dumbass
http://tinyurl.com/m74uyua
It’s such a simple question yet you guys with all your wisdom can’t answer it???
You have two answers above re stone fruit chilling requirements and flowering plants insect pollinators getting out of step,
your referral to, was it a good thing that it was warmer for humans is a sad reflection on your ability to understand the real world, it ain’t all about humans
I asked a simple question and you replied “IF we keep setting warm records in winter…”. I didn’t ask what would happen if the temperature KEEPS going up. I asked if this new record was bad. Is 15.9C too warm? Is it bad? You responded talking about low temperatures required by stone fruit.
Yes, not having enough chilling hours could become a problem if the Melbourne climate warms so much that low temperatures are too warm to provide enough chilling hours. But we’re talking about a new high temperature record. We’re talking about this past month of July not so possibly future warming.
Once again you fail to address the question asked john.
“Was anyone complaining about the warmer than normal weather?”
Of course few people complain about warmer weather in winter (apart from skiers etc) but to most people who pay attention it is a reminder of the deal with the devil that we are doing. The quid pro quo of higher temperatures in winter is higher temperatures in summer/autumn/spring. I ran my (evaporative) air con on 62 days last spring/summer/autumn and I live in a relatively cool part of Australia. This does not bode well for the future.
That’s assuming that summer temperatures will also increase. If the new record is in large part due to warmer than normal ocean temperature around Australia (and specifically around Melbourne) then it’s possible, if not likely, that the summer temperature in Melbourne won’t set a record also. It’s easier for slightly warmer than normal ocean water temperature to influence cooler winter temperatures than hot summer temperatures since ocean water around Melbourne is only ~15C currently.
“That’s assuming that summer temperatures will also increase.”
To assume otherwise would be a very brave assumption.
“ocean water around Melbourne is only ~15C currently”
What does that have to do with summer?
It has everything to do with summer. If the water temperature stays in the normal range then Melbourne shouldn’t have a significantly warmer than average summer. Locations on the water or surrounded by water often have weather that is, in essence, controlled by that water temperature. San Diego certainly does.
So above normal water temperature in winter leads to warmer than normal temperature. Unless that water temperature increases significantly then it will have little if any impact on summer temperatures.
“It has everything to do with summer.”
“then it will have little if any impact on summer temperatures”
Are you arguing that it has something to do with Summer or not?
I’m saying that warmer than normal water temperature in winter will have little if any impact on summer temperature. The warmer than normal ocean water temperature helped keep Melbourne warmer than normal so far this winter. That doesn’t mean the ocean water will be warmer than normal this summer though. There are a lot of factors that impact water temperature particularly near shore water temperature.
weather report his evening is about the number of nights well above average for august , the reporter then said that it was a sign of a changing climate
well done
and the jan heatwave
Click to access scs43c.pdf
tipping points will result as revealed here,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130731093919.htm
Tipping points are events where small changes in environmental conditions cause rapid and extensive ecological change.
The amount of sunlight reaching the poles is highly dependent on the seasons because Earth’s tilt causes the sun to be above the horizon for considerably longer during summer than winter, and the lower solar angle during winter increases reflectance from the water surface.
“Early melt that brings the date of sea-ice loss closer to midsummer will cause an exponential increase in the amount of sunlight reaching some areas per year,” says Dr Clark.
Australia’s hottest year ?
desdemonadespair.net/2013/07/2013-shaping-up-to-be-one-of-australias.htmll
If july has been the hottest on record then no one told the thousands of silver wattle that have died in the diamond valley due to severe frost .
Thanks for this insight Heiko. Don’t stop there though. Obviously the frost in the Diamond Valley completely debunks the global warming hoax perpetrated by the UN in their push for one world government.
I love how you go for the ridiculous.
Its just my observation if so many silver wattles have died due to frost how did they ever exist prior to global warming?
“just my observation if ..”
We can rely on that.
I seem to remember all the silver wattles in Tasmania coping quite well with extreme frosts and snow, but here’s the thing, in your latest comment you are equating a frost in one tiny place with the globe. You also show a very real ignorance of evolution too and an understanding of the timeframes involved….and yes, I know all that from your two small comments.
“in your latest comment you are equating a frost in one tiny place with the globe”
Actually they’re referring to the hottest July in Melbourne’s history so I’m not sure why you accuse them with equating it with the globe. In fact it’s the alarmists that are trying to equate one unusually warm day and month in Melbourne with some global significance .
Your uneducated opinion is worthless Bill Jamieson. Try trolling someone else who cares what you have to say.
frosts are common, warmest day week month and possibly year are not.
they are an indication not taken in isolation to confirm that all the globe is experiencing these trends . less cold records, more hot records
“if so many silver wattles have died due to frost”
“if”
When are you going to supply evidence that frost was the sole cause of death?
uki try being more accurate in your posts and not assuming people are saying something they aren’t.
more likely scorched from the morning sun, silver wattle are very frost hardy,
are you sure they are dead?
http://www.australianplants.com/plants.aspx?id=1014
Aus plants says -8c was- 4.5 on house thermo obviously alot colder down by creek..And yes they are definitley dead. Do you want some fire wood.
so you have never had a minus 4.5C prior?
John last time I can remember having astring of severe frosts was winter 1982 warm clear days freezing nights that was during the drought that finished on ash wednesday
I guess some people don’t know what the word “extremes” means.
What sort of evidence are you after 3 to4 freezing nights in a row and a distinct demarcation line between living and dead trees ,no shortage of water ,no herbicides.
lots of water ?
“What sort of evidence are you after”
Evidence that frost was the sole cause of death. Are you some sort of horticulturalist? Why should we trust your opinion?
[…] Melbourne’s warmest July on record: 10c above the average, follows Angry Summer and Autumn hea… […]