Uknowispeaksense picked it up, but within the comments section of this blog John Harvey Samuel re-posted some brilliant passages:
If any scientist had a coherent and sensible scientific revelation that we needn’t be worried about fossil-fuel greenhouse-gas emissions causing a dangerous global warming problem, that scientist would write what would very quickly become the most celebrated research paper ever published. The publication would be in one of the world’s most prestigious science journals, and that journal would be proud to have the honor and privilege. Literally hundreds of other scientists would quickly validate the research, and the author of the paper would become the most famously celebrated scientist in history.
Every last one of us — scientist or layperson, conservative or liberal, religious or not — shares the same confirmation bias: we would strongly prefer that the problem of global warming were not real and not serious. Those of us who do understand the science would be the first in line to shake the hero’s hand and thank them for delivering the best news civilization has ever gotten.
But that’s not reality. We are experiencing, all at once, not just global warming but the entire suite of climate change phenomena that go along with it. Unprecedented droughts. Unprecedented heatwaves. Unprecedented storms. Unprecedented floods. Unprecedented precipitation events. Such a high ratio of new record high temperatures to new record low temperatures that it would be statistically impossible without a definite global warming trend (and that ratio is growing). Earth’s perennial ice is melting — including the entire north polar ice cap.
Who predicted 25 years ago that these things were going to happen?
These phenomena were, in fact, predicted by the very same scientists who say that carbon emissions from burning enormous amounts of fossil fuels are building up in Earth’s atmosphere and causing global warming — as originally predicted in 1896.
Forget the models, forget all the other noise in the debate. The observations by Svante Arrhenius were made 120 years ago.
Here is the 1896 paper – it is worth noting he did not foresee the rapid increase in CO2 we’ve seen. Also, his estimates of climate sensitivity (temperature increases) were too high.
Essentially he was trying to determine the influences on the Earth’s energy budget. Given the limited tools and data at his disposal, his work is still remarkable.
Either that, or the conspiracy started in 1896…
Profound observation John.