Warming, not cooling: three recent graphs that conclusively show the planet heating

Warming, not cooling: ocean heat content

One the myths peddled by the denial machine is that there has been a pause in warming. 

Indeed, Britain’s “nuttiest weather forecaster” Piers Corbyn is predicting a mini ice age. Jo Nova looked at the last year years of temperature data and concluded the world might have entered a cooling phase.

Of course, such claims are completely divorced from reality. Two recent studies and Australia’s experience over summer offer conclusive proof the planet is warming, and that we’re living in a changed climate.

No doubt many of you have already seen the study of ocean warming by Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013) published in Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1002/grl.50382)

The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean’s role in the Earth’s energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observational-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.

Put simply, global warming has been accelerating: 90% of global warming has been going into the oceans, heating them considerably.

Of course, there is the recent Marcott et.al paper looking at the last 11,500 years of temperature anomalies:

A new hockey stick

While Australia has just experienced the “Angry Summer“:

6883-DCCEE-Summer-Heat-Infographs_SUMMARY_v6_1MARCH-2

The oceans are warming at an alarming rate; temperature records are being smashed not just in Australia, but across the world; the present warming trend is unlike anything we’ve seen in thousands of years.

Of course, the denial machine has gone into overdrive ever more desperate attempts to cast doubt on the science.

Thus we’re left with a stark choice; accept the science, or believe the entire scientific community is lying.

68 thoughts on “Warming, not cooling: three recent graphs that conclusively show the planet heating

  1. astrostevo says:

    Three graphs showing conclusively that or globe is overheating not cooling? I’ve seen a site with no less than ten such graphs here :

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/15/1014151/ten-charts-that-make-clear-the-planet-just-keeps-warming/

    Of course, the Human Induced Rapid Global Overheating Deniers have their graphs falsely claiming otherwise too but on closer inspection – such as the one done here :

    http://grogsgamut.blogspot.de/2013/02/andrew-bolt-trends-towards-dodgy-graphs.html

    these turn out to be dodgy as all hell. Deliberately misleading, cherry-picked and poorly and incorrectly labelled.

    You probably already know but as this youtube clip – 24 – “Global warming has stopped? Again??” by potholer54 (whose series on this issue is exemplary) – shows :

    the whole “No further global overheating” crock seems to have been pulled from the backside of some British journalist named Rose who made up his own analysis totally ignoring what the experts including at the Met office actually said.

  2. Tony Duncan says:

    i am fascinated by the complete doubling down of denier’s on the idea that the whole Global warming hoax is just about dead. The arctic is just in a melting phase with the AMO, and the extra melting is because of soot. Anatarctica is GAINING ice so the tota at the poles is perfectly normal. Hansen is CONSTANTLY rewiring past temps to be lower and current temps to be higher. the 17 years of no warming are pretty much the last neil in the coffin, and in the next few years when temps refuse to rise scientists will stat jumping ship and realize that either there is NO substantial forcing of water vapor so CO2 doubling is only .7C or some other.
    of curse they have been saying variations of this for the past 4 years that I have ben paying attention. I am impressed with how easily they dusted off the arctic debacle, when ALL of them claimed 2007 was a fluke.
    My favorite is SUYTS as he is polite and while an ideological zealot at least tries to make argumnets that purport to be rational.

  3. Eric Worrall says:

    Leaving aside the third graph, which I assume you included as a joke, given that Australia is a tiny portion of the global surface, and the North this year is experiencing an extreme winter:-

    RE the second graph, Marcott himself admitted that his post 1800s reconstruction is “not robust”, because the number of proxies thins out towards the end – so the spike at the end could be an artefact.

    RE the first graph, it looks like Trenberth’s analysis is in a little trouble. Early days, because the Trenberth paper is very recent, but there’s an excellent writeup on some of the issues on WUWT:-

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/26/trenberth-still-searching-for-missing-heat/

    So still no compelling evidence that the world is warming. More importantly, those pesky surface thermometers refuse to budge – and none of your climate heroes seem willing to put their reputations on the line with a prediction of when the “warming trend” in surface temperatures will resume.

    • john byatt says:

      fox news, the daily telegraph and watt the F**ck, great sources, any science?

      they have been claiming that the hoax is over for the past four years, nothing will change except their numbers which are evaporating much like the Arctic

    • Dr No says:

      Yawn.

      Wake me up when you have a credible source.

      p.s.
      I still have $10 riding on a record warm year this year (at good odds of 5 to 1)
      Let me know when you can match that.

    • john byatt says:

      The Arctic ocean temperature is ten degrees warmer than the north atlantic, just looked at that this morning, how does fit into your so called cooling phase?

    • Dr No says:

      What is fascinating is the possibility (even if very remote) that the globe may not warm as much as predicted. Just fast forward to 2100 and imagine that global average temperatures are not much warmer than today.
      The denialists might feel vindicated when , in actual fact, they would have no right to do so. The only people who could claim vindication would be those true sceptics (i.e. scientists ) who always play by the rules and argue their case on the facts, not on beliefs and distortions (and especially WUWT).

      Sorry Eric, the bad news, I am afraid, is that denialists stand no chance of gaining any credit no matter what global temperatures do. Their incoherence, absence of true scepticism, and lack of training make them ineligible for any potential prize at the end of the race. You are no scientist – stick to writing code.

    • Just a quick heads-up Eric, Anthony Watts is a retired meteorologist. What he doesn’t know about climate change could fill a warehouse. I tell you this because it seems you’ve mistaken him to be a competent scientist who at least has a rudimentary understanding of climate science. Scientist John Abraham offers a brief summary of Anthony’s clownish bungling of climate science in this interview:

      http://oilprice.com/Interviews/Real-Pragmatism-for-Real-Climate-Change-Interview-with-Dr.-John-Abraham.html

      Be more careful in future. Citing Watts is a sure way to embarrass yourself and guarantee that you won’t be taken seriously.

    • astrostevo says:

      Eric wrote : “Leaving aside the third graph, which I assume you included as a joke, given that Australia is a tiny portion of the global surface, and the North this year is experiencing an extreme winter.

      See there’s an explanation for that extreme winter and its entirely conistent with Global Overheating – the jetstream has slowed because of heat over the Arctic which is heating up much faster than the rest of the planet and this means the jetstream meanders more and takes longer to complete a revolution than previously which means stronger, longer storms. The extra water vapour coming fromthe hotter Arctic and increased melt with consequent larger stretches of open water doesn’t help either because heat drives storms and mor emositure = more precipitation eg. greater snowfall.

      • astrostevo says:

        Typo & space bar error fixes :

        The extra water vapour coming from the hotter Arctic and increased melt with consequent larger stretches of open water doesn’t help either because heat drives storms and more moisture = more precipitation.

        (Would love an edit or preview facility here, hint, hint!)

        See also :

        Global Warming: Winter Weirding clip by Greenman 3610 /Peter Sinclair. In fact, Eric Worrall, I highly recommend you (& everyone else but you especially) watch the whole ‘Climate Denial Crock of the Week’ series that’s part of, think about it and learn. Please?

      • Nick says:

        Please, astrostevo, do not confuse Eric with mechanisms and reasoning. You have to ‘crank’ it up for him to follow, and the message has to come with outstandingly poor layout [Corbyn] or be under a pink portcullis []Monckton].

    • astrostevo says:

      See also :

      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-26/northern-blizzards-linked-to-arctic-sea-ice-decline/4594802

      Eric Worrell, serious question here, have you actually done *any* research or checked anything you’ve said with even a few minutes online searching before you posted all that stuff that, y’know, simply just isn’t right?

    • Watts is propaganda. There’s no need to read him. And he’s a eugenicist.

  4. For an intelligent discuss about Marcott 2013 may I suggest:
    The two epochs of Marcott
    Guest post by Jos Hagelaars.
    http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/

    The discussion following the post is actually quite good and informative in it’s own right.
    Also not to miss is Ms Hot Whopper’s examination of McIntyre and Watt’s vacuum chamber science.
    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    SATURDAY, MARCH 9, 2013
    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/03/watts-is-whopping-crazy-after-marcott.html

    Watts is Whopping Mad (Crazy) after Marcott et al – Must be the Heat!
    Update 2+ So far there are now {three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen (crossed out)} fifteen WUWT protest articles not counting the sleazeball’s (approaching this might even beat the number of protests against the Lewandowsky et al paper). The first few are touched on in this article.
    ~ ~ ~

    Eric this one’s for you:
    “Now they are focusing entirely on this century rather than the entirety of the Holocene.

    ‘If I understand Watts/McIntyre correctly, they are saying that there is an “error” in Marcott et al, which means earth hasn’t been warming after all and we are actually still in the Little Ice Age.”

  5. john byatt says:

    interesting that the deniers now have no papers to make a case and are entirely devoted to slinging crap at genuine papers, saves time doing research and providing peer reviewed counter science,

    Of course they all believe in blog science by your local IT guy is more than worthless,
    the rest of us need a panadol after reading their nonsense

    .

  6. john byatt says:

    Eric “Australia is a tiny portion of the global surface, and the North this year is experiencing an extreme winter:-”

    what planet is he on ?

  7. Steve says:

    One thing that impressed me with the ocean temperatures graphs is the clear cooling of the ocean surface when there was a strong El Niño event in 1998.
    The surface of the ocean is warmer now than it was in 1997, so the next strong El Niño is likely to be very hot. And because the water deeper in the ocean is now also warmer, the cooling of the surface may not be so strong.

  8. EoR says:

    the denial machine has gone into overdrive ever more desperate attempts to cast doubt on the science

    They may be in overdrive, but no one is paying attention. That sound you can hear? It’s the quiet sobbing of deniers in their bunkers, desperately trying to hide the decline.

    • That’s all good and well, but how do the Reptilians from the constellation Draco fit in to all this?

      • john byatt says:

        Enki is coming to save them just before the reptilians and the ice age arrive.

        no not joking that was a guy called chubb on steve fieldings forum some years ago firm belief. had his bunker ready to wait for enki.

        ,
        Upset him and would post about five pages of glaciers, only those in retreat,

        as eric is to wuwt chubb was to iceagenow

        only available on way back now

  9. The intellectual death rattle of denierdom, shrieking up is down, won’t change the physics. The world is warming due to manmade CO2 – and we’re not going to enjoy the consequences.

  10. Debunker says:

    Eric is a classic denier. No amount of evidence is ever going to convince him. Even when the summer Arctic ice is all gone, (probably just a couple of years away now), he will still be bleating about how its all ended up in Antarctica, or that its cyclical and will come back, or some other such rubbish.

    A real skeptic would at least admit occasionally that we may have a point. That yes indeed, the loss of Arctic ice is very worrying and may possibly be due to Global Warming, but no, not Eric.

    However, given that he is 100% certain that AGW is not happening, I can’t understand why he is unwilling to bet on it. With those sorts of odds, its not a bet, its an investment! The fact he is unwilling to put his money where his mouth is, suggests to me that he is not at all sure that he is correct. In other words, he is a bullshit artist.

    Come on Eric, give us an ice recovery prediction! We all need a good laugh!. Put 10 bucks on it at least!

  11. Eric Worrall says:

    Breaking – the next issue of “The Economist”, a major global magazine, carries an article on the slowdown of Global Warming:-

    http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions

    (h/t WUWT)

    The dyke is crumbling guys – climate “denial” is starting to penetrate MSM in a big way. Your alarmist religion is finished.

    • john byatt says:

      The evolution dyke is crumbling guys “evolution denial” is starting to penetrate the MSM in a big way.

      your alarmist evolution religion is finished

      http://www.christiananswers.net/q-eden/edn-scientists.html

      • john byatt says:

        The comparison is stunning

        Partial list of Creationist scientists
        (past and present)

        600+ voting scientists of the Creation Research Society (voting membership requires at least an earned master’s degree in a recognized area of science).
        150 Ph.D. scientists and 300 other scientists with masters degrees in science or engineering are members of the Korea Association of Creation Research. The President of KACR is the distinguished scientist and Professor Young-Gil Kim of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. Ph.D. in Materials Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute / highly distinguished / inventor of various important high-tech alloys.
        (Note: The following list is very incomplete. Inclusion of any person on this list is in no way an endorsement, nor does it necessarily indicate anything about their religious beliefs.)

        Gerald E. Aardsma (physicist and radiocar

      • Eric Worrall says:

        John, unlike some of the others, inside you is a spark of intellectual honesty.

        I’m looking forward to discussing this with you after your 2015 ice free prediction fails.

      • Nick says:

        Eric,you have no intellectual honesty at all,and that lack of honesty is copiously documented here.

      • john byatt says:

        you may be discussing that sooner than you think

    • You need to read the entire article. Sigh. Your denial is the thing that is finished. The Economist has also neglected the deep ocean. But, and pay attention, Worrall, the Economist is not a science journal. Oh yes, it’s miles better than Forbes or the Murdoch poodle papers, but it’s not a science journal. Still, it is better than the nutty Weatherboy blog you cherish – which is completely upside down.

      I know I’m a fuss pot. I’ll take my science from science journals. And I won’t look for stock tips in the Artificial Intelligence journals.

      So, for the Economist, a C+ for science. http://www.skepticalscience.com/no-long-tail-means-climate-sensitivity-is-low.htm

    • Got that date for arctic ice recovery yet, young Eric?

    • I think this trumps the Economist. But, hey, what would a climate scientist know about climate? (Snigger.) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract

    • Eric Worrall says:

      Your denial is that the prediction which is in trouble is a surface temperature prediction.

      If the models can’t get surface temperature right, then what else are they getting wrong?

      If the surface temperature line busts through the bottom of the 95% model prediction of temperature, then its reasonable to conclude the models which produced that prediction are wrong.

      • john byatt says:

        Eric, “IF”

        GISS

        The trend from August 1975 to July 1997 is 0.16ºC/dec, and the trend to August 2012 is 0.17ºC/dec .

        The ten years to August 2012 were warmer than the previous 10 years by 0.15ºC, which were warmer than the 10 years before that by 0.17ºC, which were warmer than the 10 years before that by 0.17ºC, and which were warmer than the 10 years before that by 0.17ºC
        .
        The continuation of the linear trend from August 1975 to July 1997 would have predicted a temperature anomaly in August 2012 of 0.524ºC. The actual temperature anomaly in August 2012 was 0.525ºC.

        That is the surface temperature referred to

        • debunker says:

          Eric has no idea of risk assessment. He assumes that if the trend falls outside the 95 percentile band then game over, AGW disproved.

          If his doctor initially told him he had a cancer with a 95 percent death rate but then modified his assessment to 85 pc after tests, would he be jumping for joy, shouting ‘whoopee I’m cured’?

          What an idiot!

    • Nick says:

      A lot of climate denial actually originated in the MSM, Err-ic. Fabricators of interviews like David Rose and Jonathon Leake,bellicose factually bare ranters like Delingpole,Booker and Bolt and the ‘science’ journalist Jo Nova…and who could ignore the efforts of Murdoch’s OZ wing under Chris Mitchell? Fed by liar for hire Marc Morano and A Watts,the MSM has been pretty hopeless at fact checking these cynics.

  12. Debunker says:

    It’s happening already….

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/27/arctic-sea-ice-maximum_n_2962908.html

    The money quote:

    Arctic Sea ice maximum is sixth lowest on record, the 10 lowest sea ice maximums have all occurred over the past 10 years.

    Won’t make any difference though to our own Alfred E Neuman, “What me worry”, Eric…

  13. Eric Smiff says:

    AGW is an oil scam cooked up by Enron and Gore . Please remember that ALL Americans are on the extreme right by civilised standards.

    Enron Also Courted Democrats Washington Post – Kyoto

    According to internal Enron documents and the recollections of former employees, Chairman Kenneth L. Lay had the ear of top Democrats in the 1980s and ’90s. He and his colleagues used that access to promote the company’s interests with the Clinton administration and key congressional Democrats.

    In a White House meeting in August 1997, for example, Lay urged President Clinton and Vice President Gore to back a “market-based” approach to the problem of global warming — a strategy that a later Enron memo makes clear would be “good for Enron stock.”

    On Aug. 4, 1997, Lay and seven other energy executives met with Clinton, Gore, Rubin and other top officials at the White House to discuss the U.S. position at the upcoming conference on global warming in Kyoto, Japan. Lay, in a memo to Enron employees, said there was broad consensus in favor of an emissions-trading system.

    Enron officials later expressed elation at the results of the Kyoto conference. An internal memo said the Kyoto agreement, if implemented, would “do more to promote Enron’s business than almost any other regulatory initiative outside of restructuring the energy and natural gas industries in Europe and the United States.”

    google the link.

    • OK I googled ENRON, why did you leave out all of this stuff?

      Bush administration and the Enron connection
      http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Bush_administration_and_the_Enron_connection
      ~ ~ ~

      Enron and the Bush administration: kindred spirits in fraud and criminality
      By David Walsh | 18 January 2002
      http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2002/01/enro-j18.html
      ~ ~ ~

      The Enron Collapse And The Bush/Republican Connections !
      01-17-2002
      http://www.apfn.org/apfn/enron_republican.htm
      ~ ~ ~

      Enron: Patron Saint of Bush’s Fake News
      Published: March 20, 2005
      http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/20/arts/20Rich.html?_r=0
      ~ ~ ~

      KEN LAY DESERVED A STATE FUNERAL – 2006
      http://mostcorrupt.com/Ken-Lay.htm
      ~ ~ ~

      The Enron Story Everyone Is Missing: The Bush-Ken Lay Connection
      May 26, 2006
      http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20060526_enron_bush_lay/
      ~ ~ ~

      ===========================

      Oh but this isn’t a blog for crazy conspiracy theories, we were trying to talk climate science and Earth observations, weren’t we?

      One directional skepticism equals denial 😉

      • Eric Smiff says:

        Enron believed Bush could implement Kyoto better than Gore. They were wrong. The senate voted 95-0 against it.; There was nothing Bush could do.

        The Washington Post ain’t no conspiracy feary dudes.

        *****

        Enron Also Courted Democrats Washington Post – Kyoto

        According to internal Enron documents and the recollections of former employees, Chairman Kenneth L. Lay had the ear of top Democrats in the 1980s and ’90s. He and his colleagues used that access to promote the company’s interests with the Clinton administration and key congressional Democrats.

        In a White House meeting in August 1997, for example, Lay urged President Clinton and Vice President Gore to back a “market-based” approach to the problem of global warming — a strategy that a later Enron memo makes clear would be “good for Enron stock.”

        On Aug. 4, 1997, Lay and seven other energy executives met with Clinton, Gore, Rubin and other top officials at the White House to discuss the U.S. position at the upcoming conference on global warming in Kyoto, Japan. Lay, in a memo to Enron employees, said there was broad consensus in favor of an emissions-trading system.

        Enron officials later expressed elation at the results of the Kyoto conference. An internal memo said the Kyoto agreement, if implemented, would “do more to promote Enron’s business than almost any other regulatory initiative outside of restructuring the energy and natural gas industries in Europe and the United States.”

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A37287-2002Jan12&notFound=true

        Washington Post – Kyoto 2

        But some business groups — especially those representing alternative energy technologies — praised the president’s plan. “This is a measured, appropriate action plan, given what we know about global warming,” said Terry Thorn, senior vice president of Enron Corp. of Houston.

        More than a dozen senior executives representing such companies as Nike Inc., Bechtel Group Inc. and Mitsubishi Motor Corp. have endorsed a newspaper ad running this week that calls for “strong leadership” by the United States on climate change.

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/climate/stories/clim102397.htm

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