Dear all, apologies for the lack of posts. I had to travel interstate for work again.
Back up and running tomorrow.
Eric why don’t you start your own climate denial blog,
Where to from here? 19/3….. arctic dawn 20/3 this year
Go on, give us an ice free prediction. Be daring. In climate science, its not the accuracy of your work which counts, its the size of your hockey stick.
I put my prediction in the public domain about three years ago for a one day ice free equiv Arctic
12 september 2015
all your comments are inane, your children will be ashamed to read your nonsense in years to come,
I like it – none of that when our grandchildren are pensioners cr@p.
As for my children, they’ll be laughing at the stupidity of their ancestors, wondering how we could ever fall for alarmist nonsense, gasping at murderous biofuel policies, talking about the need for reparations to compensate formerly poor people for the mistreatment of their ancestors – just as we marvel at the incomprehensible stupidity of people who mistreated the Jews in the early 20th century.
Or more likely, you guys will be denying there ever was a global warming consensus – just as you deny the historical reality of the 1970s global cooling scare.
More likely they will change their names and move to a different country
Give us Watts date for complete recovery. Amuse us.
Try a linear extrapolation. Pick 1998 as you seem to like 1998. http://skepticalscience.com//pics/arctic-death-spiral-1979-201302.png
The true north is shrinking back two metres per hour, just what one would expect from a flatlining temperature. http://davidappell.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-greening-arctic.html
Time running out for polar bears
Yawn. Let me know when they’re dead. I’m not expecting that update in my lifetime.
The latest from the Torygraffe, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9941022/Fattest-polar-bears-survive-climate-change.html
Hiding the decline, Eric? http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/status-table.html
This is great, read as they go from jubilation to frustration to turning on each other,
Watching the monkeys fling faeces, even at each other, has limited appeal.
I’ve recently been cyber-stalked, seriously, by some Tea Party deniers. I get the odd personal abusive note as a FB message, usually involving my age (old), shape (round), appearance (ugly), intelligence (low), drinking habit (either alcohol or Kool-Aid). It then moves onto the same abuse, extended to my family. And one created a sock puppet Facebook account as me – inviting my friends and family to befriend him so that he could abuse them. It wasn’t new to me, it probably isn’t new to you.
But, interestingly, a couple of them referenced CFACT as their source of wisdom. So I headed over there. Now there is sponsored idiocy in all its glory. CFACT is citing Booker against Attenborough over, of all things, polar bears. CFACT maintains the population is growing. That’s easily debunked, there’s a nice table of bear populations and whether they’re in decline or growth – one is growing, but eight are declining. The really odd thing was using a Christopher Booker article. CFACT didn’t seem to be aware that Booker has already had to settle out of court, expensively, for smearing Pauchari and the IPCC. Ouch. Follow the money indeed.
What’s really interesting to me is that their FB persona acts much like other deniers you may know and love. There’s a lovely graph on a billboard proclaiming no global warming. CFACT is being either praised for this (yeah, get them liberhul varmints) or much mocked for ignoring 97%+ of the globe and history (man, including me). There’s another on polar bears, as mentioned. There’s a terrifically naively unironic “Who is Mr FOIA?” campaign – positively inviting the “Where is Ms FOICFACT?” retort. They handle the questions in pretty well the same fashion as others of their ilk. Have a look at their FB presence – I’ve bored of it now.
It brought back memories of the handful of media training courses from my personal life. One of the traditional end of day exercises was to be interrogated by a reporter – the objective was to pass on my, corporate, message – and avoid answering any uncomfortable questions. As an example, our task might be to be interviewed by a reporter having just declared our results were down. But my task was to ensure the corporate message, say expanding into South America, dominated the conversation. I was amazed by the tutor’s recommendations. Just don’t answer the question. Give it the slightest acknowledgement, then deliver your message. I, indeed all of us, were aghast. Really, we said – isn’t that crass – won’t it backfire? Trust me said the tutor. “I’m glad you asked me about our results. South America is a fantastic growth opportunity.” And that’s what CFACT do. It’s rather interesting. They have other techniques too, but most of it is stonewalling. Repeat your message, ignore their question – unless you have a rehearsed response, of course.
It’s also interesting that they seem to have a theme at the same time everyone else has a theme. Yes, that verges on the conspiratorial (maybe I am one of them, at heart). But the unicorn that is flat-lining is all over the place. Polar bears. Mr FOIA will save the world (is Delingpole still here?) There’s an impression of simultaneity. CFACT is well, and secretly, funded (see Donors Trust) so it could well be that they are one of the inspirations of the echo chamber. There’s even the barmey 0.1C is indistinguishable from zero line from Monckton.
I just thought you’d be amused by my having been stalked and then being led into the doubleplusungood world of CFACT.
Oh, I should also mention that CFACT drone on and on about Climategate. And on. And they completely stonewall the “lost nine times, you loser” response. Familiar?
Their advisory committee is a freak show
here is one
And….CFACT has banned me – along with a few others. That’s the thanks I get for contributing facts, not CFACTs, to the discussion. I expected it and treat it as a badge of honour. One day I hope to deserve a “Hated by the Daily Mail” tee-shirt.
No-one is game to tell the emperor that he has no clothes…
Meanwhile, Marcott simply reconfirms what’s been known for years. BEST of all (wearing pun coming) a Muller-ite does the graph, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/18/1722601/must-have-high-resolution-charts-carbon-pollution-set-to-end-era-of-stable-climate/
Marcott is surprisingly impressive – not only did he make interesting “beneficial” mistakes with the proxies, he even managed to apply Mike’s nature trick, using Mann’s own spliced dataset as his source.
IMO Marcott is not so much a work of science as a homage to scientific fraud.
Jesus wept,Eric,you cannot even read the stuff you want to believe. As JeanS says in that link, Mann was careful to note that the instrumental record had been added post 1850.. So Mann did no ‘splicing’,and what he did was explicitly described and colo-coded, hence the frequently-explained-but-always-deliberately -misrepresented context and meaning of ‘trick’,as in ‘procedure’. He added the instrumental data at the end,which is entirely reasonable because he wanted to show REALITY post the end of his proxies.
Marcott has not spliced or added either,but played funny buggers with the dates some small amount of samples at the end of the group..I’m not really impressed with that,but at least please try and get your understanding and descriptions of things right,eh? Marcott also smoothes quite a lot,but at least read the authors justifications for that,along the reasonable line that regional proxies show a lot of variation,and a global scale atmosphere buffers that out.. Proxies are not tight temperature analogs anyway.so any reconstruction has large error bars. However,palaeoglaciology supports the view that we are now as warm as high Holocene,and are waiting for some indices to catch up. Palaeoglaciology and recent retreats show that the MWP warm spikes were not as warm as currently. Did not need Marcott or Mann 2008 to tell us that,not that THEY were trying to. They are attempting multi-proxy recons over thousands of yeasr We know the hockey strick is real from so many angles.
What Marcott et al has done just at the end appears to be unnecessary [I’m interested in any further comments from the authors] and distracts attention from the overall reconstruction. They could have showed the instrumental data,re Mann’s procedure.
I could point you to any number of peer-reviewed papers by low sensitivity types who make arbitrary and poorly justified data choices. LIndzen and Choi,Douglas and Knox for instance. I can show you where McIntyre and McKittrick pull a swifty with their ‘replication’ and ‘criticism’ of de-centred PCA. So you can show Marcott the love you give those guys ,eh? LOL
Started reading the paper,and the end point questions are addressed. Marcott et al suggest we have likely so far exceeded most but not all of the Holocene Optimum’s peaks,contrary to what was implied in serial dumbnialist distraction.
Watts is spam, according to SciAm. McIntyre’s work has been checked by, oh, McIntyre – a man whose track record is abysmal. Muller moment approaching…
comment on comment at wuwt
Robert Smith says:
March 15, 2013 at 2:38 pm
C’mon guys, we need some action. Release some of the good stuff or the story will lose momentum.
p.s. The reaction of the team on hearing that the password’s been released:
too late robert it is already dead.
Poptech made the millionth post on WUWT, according to Smokey the Mod. Couldn’t have picked a more fitting or arch-typical WUWT-er, eh!
Had a look, he seems to have flooded the comments knowing that the millionth was coming up, talking shit as usual
Don Easterbrook has been corrected by commenters in painstaking detail for his misunderstanding of the dating of the GISP core graph he misattributed to Richard Alley… Despite having had the issue explained to him several times over the past three years, he ignores the help. The thread has gone stone dead…and the information has not been corrected. WUWT? Never apologise,never explain.
A 21 word post now has 22 comments.
consider it as an open thread steve
Yes. I enjoy Eric’s comments.
Had a look at your books before, re bad boy five, what is the global temperature for that episode or not stated,?
oops bad boy four
Sorry John, the actual global temperature in that book was not stated. Of course much of that book’s action takes place on places other than the Earth.
At that time north Queensland is inhabited although most people were not living near the coast, and a new city had been built high enough in the hills to be a little cooler.
In what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo the temperatures are too high for humans to live in.
The ice at both poles has melted.
Interesting, at seven degrees C we abandon the tropics due wet bulb temperatures exceeding the mammalian maximum
Try as we might to make the arctic summer sea ice last longer, to no avail
But Weatherboy always says it’s recovering, so the graphs must be wrong. Perhaps is you lose the axis, make the scales log-log (base e), exclude the top and bottom 5% and squint really, really hard…http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/07/the-double-recovery-of-arctic-sea-ice-.html
Only opens his mouth to change feet
Its rather sad how you keep playing up regional variations – after all, its not like the Antarctic sea ice is in decline.
Arctic sea ice loss is more than three times sea ice gain in the Antarctic and three of the four major ice sheets there are in decline,
loss of arctic sea ice is already changing winter climate in the NH
that is why the sea is rising eric, remember? expansion plus melt
SLR is bumping along near zero. A fair way to go to get to your climate heroes prediction of “several metres”.
From whose backside do you extract your facts? SLR is rising. Indeed, cherry picking my date very carefully from say a couple of years back, alarmingly so. http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/
Antarctic land mass is in decline. As is Greenland’s. When you take in -all- the evidence the answer is obvious. Man and CO2.
It is never about the science for eric , always about politics,
here are his right wing creationist mates going the full loony
That’s gotta be a Poe, right? No one is seriously that out of whack, are they?
Now here’s a Poe, http://denialdepot.blogspot.co.at/2012/09/ice-age-alert-unprecedented-arctic-sea.html
The Northern winter has been long and harsh – snow has still not melted in large parts of the UK, let alone Europe. There are stories of migratory birds dying because they arrive at wetlands which are still iced over, from China to Germany.
Its the latest of a series of unusually cold, harsh winters.
A few more winters like that, and your alarmist mates at the CRU and Hadley centre will be flipping burgers for a living.
eric i get Uk met updates every day
the Uk winter this year was average, where do you get this crap?
Loved this response from rosco at UK met to the average winter post.
Rosco (20:23:08) :
If an anomaly of minus 0.6 degree C is “pretty average” – your words – why is an anomaly of plus 0.6 degrees C – global warming anomaly – cause for alarm ?
Log in to Reply
just how dumb are these deniers ?
Non-record setting weather in Europe trumps record setting weather in the USA and Australia, therefore no global warming, states the climate pixie.
The Cyrprus bank crisis will have interesting repercussions on green politics.
The EU for a long time has been one of the staunchest supporters of climate alarmism – they’ve set ambitious targets, shown real commitment to building wind turbines and creating a green economy.
Now that green economy looks like its about to hit the ground face first.
Skeptics already hold up the EU disaster as a cautionary example of what could happen to us if we travel the same road to green madness. If the EU suffers a soviet style collapse, the broken remnants will have other problems besides achieving wind turbine targets.
And of course, Gillard will have to find enough carbon market partner.
But only until September according to you (above).
Honestly, you’re just not capable of a coherent argument, are you?
Skeptics already hold up the EU disaster as a cautionary example of what could happen to us if we travel the same road to green madness.
That makes “Skeptics” sound pretty stupid. Are they all as unaware as you?
The crisis demonstrates that unregulated banks were a bad idea.
El nino, La nina or neutral all trends the same
Yawn. Let me know when the flatline ends.
Models about to be falsified with 95% confidence.
Science from the Daily Mail? No wonder you’re always wrong. http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/03/18/global_warming_denial_debunking_misleading_climate_change_claims_by_david.html?fb_ref=sm_fb_share_toolbar
Yet it warms. There was never a flat line if you look at all the evidence.
Or in Moncktonese, “atqui is tepidus”…
The next few years should tell. If you are right, the world has around 0.3c of warming to catch up on – the warming which should have occurred since 97 but didn’t.
Of course, you might reasonably expect some overshoot, so lets say 0.5 – 0.6c of warming.
It is sad that you actually place any credibility in the graph, you are shown the actual IPCC graph yet your denial insists that you accept any nonsense you are presented with.
The data is already in. The rats left on the ship of denial have no protection beyond devious cherry picking. If you use all the years, if you use all the heat in the oceans, if you look at heat records exceeding cold records by more than three to one, the data is in. If you look at the months of extremes in the US and Australia, then the conclusion is obvious. And it has been for a generation.
Prepare for your Muller moment. You know the one, the one where you have to admit you were wrong, preferably as childishly and sullenly as him.
Facts continue to overwhelm Wattsitenutters with 100% confidence. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130318151519.htm
You know that David Rose fabricated the comment from Dr James Annan, Eric?
Facts continue to overwhelm Wattsitenutters with 100% confidence.
More model BS – you’re treating the models as if they have already happened, as they are established fact.
The *observation* is that America is in a prolonged hurricane drought, with steadily declining hurricane activity for at least the last 30 years.
But let an alarmist rag predict the moon is made of blue cheese, and you guys jump on it like you can already taste it.
Hmm, Muller moment approaching…
Maybe Lewandowsky can help you work through your problem with understanding the difference between predictions and observations.
You are typecast by his remarkably prescient work.
8 studies, same outcome, Human caused global warming
I hope you’ve purchased your carbon credits ;-).
I hate to be pedantic (no really!) but why?
The price of carbon is included in air travel (which I presume is the foundation of your
“jolly jape”), or are you suggesting this blog is a carbon emitter?
Fair point – I look forward to a discount on airfares I book after September.
Science from the Daily Mail and Watts. Next, fire from his fingertips.
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