One swallow does not make a spring.
Nor does one record low for Arctic ice signify the immediate and imminent end of the world.
So then, why has the announcement by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) on the new record low for the Arctic sea ice got many talking, tweeting and blogging?
The death spiral of the Arctic is but one data point. As an isolated phenomenon it is concerning – what is important is that this is part of an emerging pattern that matches scientific predictions made decades ago.
This is why so many are focussed on the issue, and why the denial machine is in state of utter conniption (see below).
To put it bluntly: scientists said this shit would happen.
The shit appears to be happening.
QED: this shit is real.
Indeed, the shit is not merely hitting the fan, its knocking the fan from the ceiling and ploughing right on through into the stratosphere.
Climate change is generating fast-moving-super-powered shit and we’re standing between it and what ever trajectory it’s on.
As the kids like to say: “This shit just got real…“
The record low for Arctic sea ice merely confirms our understanding of the multiple impacts of climate change: how it is now manifesting in extreme weather events; the Greenland ice sheet melt; rising sea and land temperatures; all of which paint a picture.
Its takes a very focussed mind to ignore all of the above, and dismiss this concerning event.
Thus the concern trolls who say “Look, maybe climate change is a problem but in regard to this issue there’s been only 33 years of satellite data” are no better than the outright deniers.
Yes – we understand it is only one data point. And if this was an isolated event we’d be saying “Interesting, perhaps we should look into this phenomenon, eh?”
But focussing on the fact we have a “mere” thirty years of satellite data is no different from saying we have only a century-and-a-half of temperature records from actual instruments.
Step back: look at the big picture.
Falling down: the denial continues, but from a distance its revealing
To those who think “Surely at this point, even the most hard-core “sceptics” have to accept the data?” the answer is a definitive “No, they won’t”.
For an example of this look no further than Anthony Watts (Watts up with that?) and Marc Morano (Climate Depot).
These men have spent a considerable portion of their adult lives – and I might add built public profiles – denying the science and undermining public trust in scientists.
Expecting them to repudiate their life’s work in response to mere facts, scientific data and the overwhelming consensus of experts is a naive hope.
Anthony Watts – after rousing himself from bed after a hard night poring over temperature data downloaded from public sources – gets straight to the task of convincing himself there is nothing to worry about:
No matter what though, its all just quibbling over just a little more than 30 years of satellite data, and it is important to remember that. It is also important to remember that MASIE wasn’t around during the last record low in 2007, and IMS was just barely out of beta test from 2006. As measurement systems improve, we should include them in the discussion
Yes, because high school graduate Watts has picked up something NASA and the NISDC have overlooked: Mr. Watts, the Nobel Committee will be knocking on your door soon.
No really Anthony – I promise, like soon.
You know, I could debunk what is merely a very public example of cognitive dissonance – but why? Tamino does it here – clearly he has a stronger stomach than I do.
But I will note Watts uses “Aspect two” of my Six Aspects of Denial:
Question the motives and integrity of scientists – This is the favourite tactic of the climate change denial movement. They claim the scientists are engaged in fraud, or are being pressured by governments to make up the results…
Such tactics can clearly be seen in Watts post:
“Note that we don’t see media pronouncements from NOAA’s NATICE center like “death spiral” and “the Arctic is screaming” like we get from its activist director, Mark Serreze. So I’d tend to take NSIDC’s number with a grain of salt, particularly since they have not actively embraced the new IMS system when it comes to reporting totals. Clearly NSDIC knows the value of the media attention when they announce new lows, and director Serreze clearly knows how to make hay from it.”
Yes – the NSIDC and its “activist” director are clearly a pack of media whores hungry for fame.
In fact, I’d suggest Serreze is the Lady Ga Ga of the scientific world, engaging in publicity stunts in order foster celebrity status.
Expect Serreze to be adorning a “meat dress” at the next Warmist Convention…
But for the throwing of chum, spinning of facts and sheer chutzpah of denying reality the award surely goes to Marc Morano of Climate Depot
Here is a man who has done more to sway public opinion against the science.
Today he goes into overdrive in an attempt to not merely wave away concern, but shout down doubt:.
Yes, Climate Depot will explain it all away for you….
Even a cursory glance today’s Climate Depot reveals the sheer desperation of Morano.
His repeated “It’s not happening, it’s not real, it’s not happening, it’s not real!” show cases not merely special pleading, but dissembling on an epic scale.
So clearly at odds with reality is Morano’s public statements he must qualify the climate deniers equivalent of Iraqi Information Minister Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf.
Morano is – quite literally – falling down in a very public way.