The odious Andrew Bolt claims scientists and warmists “did not see this coming”:
The global warmists claimed Queensland’s rains would dry up, which is why the Labor Government built a desalination plant – now mothballed – instead of yet more dams:
(Premier Peter) Beattie said the effects of climate change on our region meant we could no longer rely on past rainfall patterns to help us plan for the future…
“My advice indicates if we continue to experience below average rainfalls it could take several years (anywhere from five to ten years) for our major dam system to climb back up past 40 percent even with purified recycled water, desalination and the other measures we’re taking to supplement our water supplies.
“Given the current uncertainty about the likely impact of climate change on rainfall patterns in SEQ over coming years, it is only prudent to assume at this stage that lower than usual rainfalls could eventuate.
And which of your useless experts – Monckton, Nova, Watts – made a prediction worth a damn?
He then cherry picks data from a 2007 CSIRO report:
The CSIRO’s global warming models in 2007 certainly predicted less rain, not more:
5.2.1 Median precipitation change by 2030
Best estimates of annual precipitation change represent little change in the far north and decreases of 2% to 5% elsewhere. Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, particularly in the south-west where they reach 10%. In summer and autumn decreases are smaller and there are slight increases in the east…
By 2050, under the B1 scenario, the range of annual precipitation change is -15% to +7.5% in central, eastern and northern areas, with a best estimate of little change in the far north grading southwards to a decrease of 5%.
The range of change in southern areas is from a 15% decrease to little change, with best estimate of around a 5% decrease. Under the A1FI scenario changes in precipitation are larger. The range of annual precipitation change is -20% to +10% in central, eastern and northern areas, with a best estimate of little change in the far north grading to around a 7.5% decrease elsewhere.
But here is the real kicker: the CSIRO report makes predicitons for 2030, 2050 and 2070 not 2010.
It is about long term trends, using the IPCC models to make various predictions under different emissions pathways.
It is not intended as a weather forecast for the next six months!
Andrew Bolt does not even understand what he is reading.
What did my previous post just demonstrate (from 2010 report):
Climate change is also likely to affect extreme rainfall in south-east Queensland (Abbs et al.2007). Projections indicate an increase in two-hour, 24-hour and 72-hour extreme rainfall events for large areas of south-east Queensland, especially in the McPherson and Great Dividing ranges, west of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. For example, Abbs et al. (2007) found that under the A2 emissions scenario, extreme rainfall intensity averaged over the Gold Coast sub-region is projected to increase by 48 per cent for a two-hour event, 16 per cent for a 24-hour event and 14 per cent for a 72-hour event by 2070. Therefore despite a projected decrease in rainfall across most of Queensland, the projected increase in rainfall intensity could result in more flooding events.
A decrease in overall rain and increase in extreme events:
In Queensland the major risks to communities and their supporting infrastructure are cyclones and flooding. In addition, poor building design will place an increasing load on mechanical cooling to manage the effects of higher temperatures, increasing the need for fossil-fuelled electricity generation and thereby increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change will affect settlements through direct and indirect impacts resulting in damage to buildings and other infrastructure. These climate changes include:
> increased intensity of rainfall events
> increased temperatures
> more frequent extreme weather events
> increased extent and frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surges.
The man has no shame, and is a blight on the media landscape.
The cowardly Bolt has disabled comments on his blog.
Excuse the language, but f*ck Andrew Bolt.