St.Kilda Beach in the 1930s: when life was simpler, and the planet cooler*
Melbourne is famous for its extremes of weather. As the old Crowded House song so beautifully put it, to live in Melbourne is to experience Four Seasons in One Day.
We’re accustomed to blistering summers and bone-chilling winters. Less familiar are blistering Autumns.
For those who didn’t know, Melbourne is in the midst of a record-breaking heat-wave that has seen the temperature stay above 30 degrees Celsius for eight days now.
Nor is there any relief in sight; according to the Bureau of Meteorology we can expect at least two more days and nights of extreme heat.
This will surpass the previous record of seven days set in February 1961.
The remarkable fact is that we’re officially in Autumn.
According to the Country Fire Authority (CFA), by Wednesday the entire state will be exposed to some risk of bush or grass fires. Areas marked blue denote areas of high fire danger, those coded yellow pertain to areas of very high fire danger:
CFA update for Wednesday 13/3/2013
Without doubt we’re entering a new climate regime:
Future warming of the climate due to greenhouse gas emissions will very likely lead to further increases in the frequency of unusually hot days and nights and continued declines in unusually cold days and nights.
These changes will result in weather events which are increasingly beyond our prior experiences.
The climate denial crowd will try to tell you “It’s just weather!”
Or they’ll claim it was just as hot fifty, seventy or one hundred years ago.
There may have been some hot days - but this heatwave ain’t nothing our grandparents, or our great-grand parents ever experienced.
The world has warmed during the last 150 years: the present heat wave is a harbinger of future extremes.
Welcome to the Anthropocene.
*Source: Museum of Victoria
Yes – the long term trend just keeps getting hotter. But we have had autumn heat waves before, they just weren’t as long. There was a particularly savage one back in March 1940: “Yesterday was the sixth day of Melbourne’s phenomenal autumn heat wave. The record length for a March heat wave is seven days, established in 1934, when the highest temperature was 103Fdeg. The maximum temperature record has been broken, and the record for duration will be equalled to-day.” reported the Argus.
“Water consumption is reaching new records. In four days Melbourne has used 616,170,000 gallons, but the storage position is satisfactory.” continued the report.
But we do have better refrigerated distribtion and storage, including fridges in households now a days. Back in 1940 “Salad vegetables were almost unobtainable in Melbourne and the suburbs yesterday afternoon.”
You can read more at: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/12432610
Air-conditioners, refridgerated food storage have all been advances that help us to adapt. But these lengthy hot spells tend to catch the elderly unaware with greater chance of mortality due to increase in heart attacks, heat stress. These heatwaves will be at the lower end of normal by the end of the century, so our grandkids are going to do it much tougher, unfortunately.
This time it’s not even El Nino, unlike in 1940. (Does anyone know what the cutoff temperature was for ‘heat wave’ back then?)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/enlist/
What’s going to happen the next time we get a strong El Nino?
That’s what I’ve been thinking. We’ll be back to drought – and then some.
Thanks takver
forecast 37C tomorrow , bit insane for March ?
That’s because it is just weather!
Just like some unseasonal weather is affecting parts of the United States.
“The snow-fall was unseasonal, even breaking some records. According to the National Weather Service, Dulles Airport in Washington D.C. blew past a previous daily record of .2 inches with a new one of 3.3 inches.”
Unseasonal weather is just WEATHER!
Post-normal science… weather IS climate, but only when we say it is.
Skeptical is just another fake skeptic, failing the “check the facts” test. Otherwise he’d be pointing out that we’re getting a lot more ‘weather’ that reflects global warming than any other sort. (Including the increased intense precipitation of the sort he cites.)
Yes Sou,
More rain is consistent with global warming
Less rain is consistent with global warming
More wind is consistent with global warming
Less wind is consistent with global warming
More droughts are consistent with global warming
More floods are consistent with global warming
Warm spells are consistent with global warming
Cold spells are consistent with global warming
My bus running late today is consistent with global warming…
And,
Activists making a fuss about a weather event is consistent with global warming.
Skeptical, honestly, there is no need to provide even more evidence (your ‘weather’ list) that shows you don’t have a clue about global warming. You’ve already given us ample data.
Yep,Skep all those things are “consistent with Global Warming”. Can you be a little more specific about why they wouldn’t be? What do get out of the public messaging and IPCC reports? Some other picture?
After all,if you’d been following the issue,reading the reports or even their summaries,you’d know a little about the projections. Weather is not going to go away.
Skep,more for little old you
Pretty much sums up Erric’s usual response of, “But in Bumcrack Alabama they had snow yesterday”.
Now I’ll type this slowly and with the smallest words I can find: If the planet is warming this is the sort of weather to be expected. If the planet is not warming this type weather should occur less frequently. Go check how many record cold events there have been in the last few years compared to record hot events.
zoot says:
Well done zoot, no spelling mistakes and your sentences are coherent.
Your new style almost makes you look intelligent.
I don’t know if it’s your giant intellect or your sparkling wit which I find most lacking in you.
Skeptical – perhaps you’d care to employ the phrase “post-normal” according to its definition, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-normal_science. Parroting deniar phrases just isn’t good enough.
Skep,consider some observations about larger scale processes and how they filter down to week-to week weather
In our regional context ,look at changes to the southern annular mode,and the well-observed trend in strengthening of high pressure systems crossing our area.
More details on the NZ drought. Really useful background info.
Wow, the 1961 record will be beaten by one day – we’re doomed folks!
two days and “This will surpass the previous record of seven days set in February 1961″
This is March
Autumn Eric – it is almost impossible to describe how “abnormal” this is. We’re beating records normally associated with summer heat waves. At this moment, it is 30c outside – 11.30pm.
SA
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/fire-bans-in-sa-amid-hot-conditions/story-e6freono-1226595312191
What – 2 – 4 weeks after the previous record?
I remember hot March weather in Melbourne – its unusual weather, not proof of the end times.
Meanwhile my lovely ladies had to wear coats on Sunday, when we visited Cabbage Tree Point in Southeast Queensland, because of the cold blustery conditions.
http://www.postcodes-australia.com/areas/qld/underwood+south/cabbage+tree+point
Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts.
Sunday, I was out in the great sandy straits crabbing, wearing a t shirt and shorts
Indeed Eric,”not proof of end times”. You probably walk into doors a lot because it’s only the impact that’s painful.
Hmm,Cabbage Tree Point on Sunday? Moreton Bay. Temperatures were average according to the Redcliffe weather stats. Must have been the wind chill factor.
What- Me Worry?
All these headlines make me sick.
“Dog day afternoon as SE heatwave gives records the stick ”
Toughen-up! Predicted global average temperature increase by the end of the century is only a lousy +3 degrees or thereabouts. I can cope with that, standing on one leg!
“New Zealand North Island drought ‘most severe in history’ and costing the economy over $1billion”
So what ?- no big deal – they are only cheap New Zealand dollars.
“Unusual weather blamed for Eyre Peninsula fish deaths”.
Big deal, I dont live there so who cares?
“Australian heatwaves hit birdlife, wildlife hard”
Bloody greenies trying to tell us that animals are more important than humans.
Honestly, you lot are a bunch of cry-babies.
Listen to Eric and Skeptical and you cant go wrong.
Really?
Of course, you know the previous ice age was about 5 degrees cooler. Are you sure you could have dealt with that on one leg or do you just say nonsense to get attention for yourself?
Moth,Dr N is being sarcastic
Moth, you and Nick are both correct.
I admit to using sarcasm to get attention for myself.
Maybe I have been affected by reading too many denialist contributions!
Given that the world hasn’t warmed for 16 years, that +3c by the end of the century is looking more than a little iffy.
And lets not forget, at the same time Australia experienced some hot weather, Russia, China, Europe and America are suffering an unusually cold and snowy winter – 5th in a row, and counting.
So lets not get too excited about a 160 year weather record being broken by a smidgen.
Eric doesn’t learn. His type won’t be able to adapt to the new, warming, world. It’s just poetic justice. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm
Why is it that every time Erric trots out “It hasn’t warmed for 16 years” I see Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper in the air?
“Globe hasn’t warmed for 16 years”? Again? Add that up since Sunday and that’s about 160 years now. Change the record,will ya?
Yawn indeed Eric
Met Office and Hadley Centre:
Global average mean temperature.
1997 – 14.37C
2012 – 14.45C
Catastrophic, Unprecedented Global Warming.
Back OT. In 1935, Melbourne had 3 days in APRIL above 30C (5th, 6th & 7th)
In 1940, Melbourne had 14 days over 30C in March, more than any other month of the year. 10 of those days were above 35C.
You must remember Eric, that pre-1980 all periods/records of warm weather was just that, weather.
Now it’s called Catastrophic, Unprecedented Global Warming (even if it’s just a localized event).
Jesus Christ!
Not the old, it hasn’t warmed since 1997/1998 meme? Again? This has been debunked so often here Snafu, please try to keep up. It is a blatant cherry pick.
Seriously, trying to educate you moronic deniers is like toilet training the family dog. You soil in the corner, we rub your nose in it and show you where to go to do it properly, but you keep on going back to crap in the same old corner again. Over and over and over again. Talk about dumb.
Ah, Snafu’s a Bookerite….likes a dusting of white asbestos in the morning. How many corrections has Booker had to post again. I’ve lost count. And you’ve brought your ‘Catastrophic’ playword with you. The truncated vocabulary of the pseudo-skeptic.
April 1935 had three hot days in a row,but the month itself was below the April mean. Most of the warmer Aprils have been in the second half of the record.
March 1940 was very hot [warmest March on record] in Melbourne,as Takver pointed out at the top of the page. The longest continuous stretch above 30C then was seven days. This month’s continuous stretch has seen nine so far. Long duration heat records are being set in Australia at quite a rate lately. Not so localised,snaffy.
Of the nine 95th percentile Marchs since 1856, five have occurred since 1985.
Of the 17 90ths since 1856,eleven have been post 1950.
Globes warming,fast in geological terms,but always too slowly for you strawmen Catastrophists. Instant gratification,on demand.
Might not make 30C today,but look at the night time temperatures. Lowest it got before sunrise was 26.5C.
There is as usual a vast informational void between your pointing out a record about to go and your sarcasm. Hopefully you know how to start filling it.
Directed to/at Eric,if there is any doubt..
Yawn. Let me know when global temperature stops flatlining.
Already have. You just avoid peeking at the oceans. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm
Eric’s yawning because he’s nodding off in the warmth….
No – I fired off such a question to Chris Monckton’s tweeter and whoever looks after it replied that it was due to solar activity.
It’s funny I’ve got climate “sceptic” family friends whom were challenging me about it all on the weekend. They were against the carbon “tax” (which doesn’t exist) and believed any warming that may have happened in recent years was due to natural variation (ie. climate always changes)… You know the lingo…
Anyway, when I tried to explain it all – especially when I noted that what we’ll see (and are already seeing) is nights warming quicker than days due to less heat being able to escape. They totally agreed that Victorian nights have changed (and they’ve lived in the state for more than four decades). They said that, it didn’t used to matter how hot it was in the day, you could count on the nights to be cool, taking the edge off.
This of course is no longer the case.
Do you think anything of my conversation – even when they agreed with me – changed their minds on the subject? This is why the term “sceptic” fails to capture the situation.
A lot of people are trying to hide their ignorance or indifference by identifying as ‘sceptical’. They don’t want to be seen as utterly disengaged.
Moth says:
Moth, what planet are you living on?
Skep, what do quote marks imply?
zoot, in this case, I suspect they imply utter stupidity.
Come on zoot, tell us all that the carbon “tax” doesn’t exist… I’d like to see you say that!
You should sue whichever school you went to for the abysmal job they did in failing to teach you English (unless you were an ESL student, in which case they did a merely lousy job).
Awww zoot…..
Moth needs your support here…. tell us all that the carbon “tax” doesn’t exist!
Monckton in Austalia telling everyone that it has not warmed for 17 years, and then there are the heatwaves in March.making him look like the village idiot
A bit like the Washington global warming hearing cancelled due to snow.
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/286493-house-committee-cancels-climate-science-hearing-citing-weather
Yes I thought the turnaround poetic justice for Monckton was great
Monckton looked like a village idiot? He is a village idiot…a global village idiot!
The UN is hunting him down to put in a theme park, Agenda 21 you know…
Given that the world hasn’t warmed for 16 years – - says Eric.
How many times are you goint to trot that tired old cherry out Eric?
Only true if you start at one particular year last century. with any other year you get an upward slope. Get a grip Eric, it isn’t that difficult a concept to get your head around.
(Mind you, for someone fooled by Watt’s yellow highlighter, maybe it is).
Eric is just here to spread his Nutella propaganda. Hmm, nutty flavour.
…blinded in the glare of Watts’ yellow highlighter! That’d be right. LOL
Front left row of Monckton’s Brisbane presentation, about to start
Try and be sceptical. Good luck.. Try and dodge the spittle,he gets rather carried away.
A denialist on another blog some years ago was excited about going to see Monckton.
next morning he came on to say that he would not be commenting anymore as he had to think about what had happened at the monckton freak show,
I wonder what Eric will make of the Agenda 21 paranoia? The Tea Party were whipping up fears of the closure of golf courses in Texas,as local government would be compelled to fall into line under the UNs iron dictates. !!.
Lots of golf courses in SE Queensland….spooky!
Fascinating talk.
With regard to “dodging the spittle”, his style was very much dry British humour – he was laughing at alarmists more than anything.
I don’t agree with his take on Agenda 21. Yes there is an Agenda 21, and I think its goals are incompatible with freedom, but I don’t think there is a centralised conspiracy, which seems to be what Monckton suggested. Instead I see it as an emergent behaviour – the sort of thing which crops up when anti-humanist former communists talk to each other.
To give an analogy, I see Agenda 21 as being a bit like the way punchups are more likely when groups of drunk footy fans from rival clubs get together after a match – not because there is a centralised conspiracy to create more confrontation, but because shit like that happens when drunk angry people rub shoulders and shout insults.
I don’t think he spent enough time on the economic side of climate change – he introduced advanced concepts such as discount factors, without enough explanation for what they are. I’m familiar with discount factors because of my work in banking, but I doubt most people in the audience knew what he was talking about at this stage in his speech.
I did have a major point of disagreement with him – when someone asked him about why the world had lost its way (not me), he suggested there was something fundamentally wrong with any society which could sanction the murder of unborn babies. He also expressed concern that Muslims, who hold different views, were rapidly outbreeding westerners in their own countries.
I disagree strongly with both views – I think that until the baby is born, its really down to the Mum whether she subjects her body to the risk and trauma of pregnancy. I also agree with Steve Levitt’s view that banning Mums from aborting unwanted kids leads to dangerously higher rates of crime.
http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/
I also disagree with his views on Islam – I think it is a two way street, and my time in Istanbul, and conversations with friends who were born there, who are modern in every sense of the word, have convinced me that the Muslim world is undergoing a transformation as profound as the Christian Reformation. The Muslims of 30 years from now will be nothing like some of the screaming Mullah’s we see today.
I think I was the only person in the room who put my hand up and admitted I didn’t agree with him on these issues.
Afterwards I shook hands, and thanked him for his time – it was very friendly. I’d definitely attend another speech.
Good for you,Eric,you avoided his hypnotic stare! The anti-Agenda 21 stuff is batshit insane,you can say it if you like. It’s a sleepy old non-binding resolution,and folk who get exercised about it -like Moncky- are either cynical or dim,or a bit of both. The world is full of ‘global governance-lite’ binding agreements already,some of them pretty sneaky. Monckton wouldn’t be here if we didn’t have global agreements.
He can laugh at alarmists? Can he laugh at himself? Because he is a shrieking alarmist of the first order,as you witnessed!
Did he fill the room?
No, about half to 2/3 – difficult to tell because of a few empty seats scattered through the crowd.
Still several hundred people – no bad for a Tuesday evening on a work night. I’ve tried arranging speakers and filling chairs, and its not easy – my biggest success was when I convinced Edwina Curry (she was in Prime Minister John Major’s cabinet) to be the speaker, as a thankyou for me helping one of her mates win an election. Then the room was full to the rafters.
And I don’t agree that his interpretation of Agenda 21 is “batshit insane”. The people who wrote Agenda 21 are batshit insane, but I think Monckton is wrong about it being a centralised conspiracy.
Hopefully Abbott will tear up a few of these agreement nasties, but I’m not holding my breath.
The acolytes assemble. Let us know if you see any white smoke. And do tell us just how big the global conspiracy is.
Oh,it undoubtedly extends at least to the inner planets…the UN have been secretively doling out long space mining leases to third-world state-owned industrial conglomerates.
Well then, abandon any pretence of skepticality Eric. You are a denier, plain and simple. That man is an out and out nutter, and compulsive liar to boot. If he is your hero, then may God help you.
The men in white coats and straight jackets await…
Maybe he makes up the poor takings at the door by selling his pills to the attendees? http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/lord-moncktons-rap-sheet/
Thursday 14th March – Evening (7:00) Speaking at Reach out for Christ International Ministries 288 Gooding Drive, Carrara (RUAP sponsored event free entry). Contact Steve on 07 5579 9077 for details
that is his creationist mates church rise up Australia
They had to cancel tickets for suncorp stadium and announce tickets at the door irish club
http://premier.ticketek.com.au/Shows/Show.aspx?sh=LORDMONC13#.UT8AtxxTB8E
According to Monckton we are pursuing the end of agriculture and a communist world govt, and it must be true because he still has the pink portcullis.
http://o.b5z.net/i/u/10152887/i/Lord_Monckton_Presentation_20130208.pdf
I hope Erric didn’t pay for this tosh – talk about never give a sucker an even break.
It seemed reasonably busy at the Irish Club – somewhere between half and 2/3 of the seats were filled.
And how many people would that be?
A quick perusal of the Irish Club Web page suggests no more than ~150 and possibly as few as 40.
Oh,the answer is here. The room can handle up to 500,I believe. I won’t gloat
Depends on the room
The Irish Club !! – how appropriate.
What are the best ten years of an Irishman’s life?
Third grade.
Did you hear about the Irish water polo team?
All their horses drowned.
etc. etc.
Did you here about the denialist who went to the Irish Club to listen to an Englishman ?
Tuesday’s update, http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/notes.shtml.
Melbourne’s temperature ranged from a minimum of 24.1 degrees at 6:24am to a
maximum of 36.2 degrees at 4:16pm. The minimum temperature has now exceeded 20
degrees for six days in a row which equals the all time record for any month.
This previously occurred from 16/1 to 21/1 1908 and from 29/1 to 3/2 2009. This
brings the run of days over 30 degrees in Melbourne to 9, which is a new all
time record for any month in Melbourne.
Warmer nights.
Muck around with this for a bit. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0305&ave_yr=10.
[...] Melbourne’s exceptional heatwave and climate change: this ain’t the weather your grandpa… (watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com) [...]
[...] 2013/03/11: WtD: Melbourne’s exceptional heatwave and climate change: this ain’t the wea… [...]
Hi there. We are screening thin ice
https://thinicemelbourne.eventbrite.com.au/
See eventbrite