From one of the many thousands of Twitter feeds (Mike Joey):
Have been watching it mike, a nightmare for those under threat yet people are still denying the reality and venturing out,
meanwhile my fan club has put up a post about me
A letter I sent in to our regional newspaper seems to have been given a wider audience, never heard of this newspaper
Nice one mate.
If only they had installed energy saver lightbulbs, none of this would have happened!
Perhaps one of the most heartless comments I’ve seen.
The real heartlessness is trying to turn a natural disaster into a political advantage.
Guess what – for a while it will work. People become more susceptible to big lies when they are distressed.
But the weather will calm again, and you will find you have lost more support in the long run.
We do not need to convince people eric the weather is doing that.
The high number of extreme events last year reinvigorated conversation about the link between rapid and catastrophic events and the slow drift of human-caused climate change. While the causes of those disasters cannot be attributed unequivocally to human-caused climate change, the events were likely influenced by it. The public also has made this link, and their perceptions are in line with scientific evidence connecting human actions and extreme events.
Hey, I see Eric is still babbling.
“But the weather will calm again, and you will find you have lost more support in the long run.”
Ask Eric, or any other denialist, what they estimate are the chances of another such event, or another record global temperature or another record low Arctic sea ice extent or……
They never give an answer, even though they argue that it is all “natural variability”.
They either cannot understand probabilities or are too afraid to put their money where their mouths are (e.g. Lindzen). I suspect the latter i.e. Deep down they know, but cannot bring themselves to admit they are wrong.
I notice that you aren’t putting up any predictions of your own Ian.
But I’m prepared to put my reputation where my mouth is.
In my worldview, this year’s arctic ice minimum was a fluke – unlikely to be repeated next year.
In the alarmist world view it is another step in the ongoing arctic ice death spiral.
So lets make a little agreement – lets make it interesting.
If I’m wrong, and next year’s arctic ice extent is lower than this year’s, I’ll admit that maybe I am wrong about CO2, and that we should be looking at means to reduce emissions, as a precautionary measure.
If I’m right, you guys can apologise for calling me a denier. Note that I’m not demanding that you agree with me – just that you respect the opinions of others.
here are the Arctic ice volumes since 2005
as you can see some years there is a slight increase but the trend is down down down
Yearly minimum sea ice volume for the 2005-2012 period (in km3):
If I bet in 2007 I would gave lost, a bet in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 I would have won.
The odds for next year look about fifty fifty
but I will bet you that the Arctic will not recover to 2005 even though it also was a record low at the time, called a fluke by the deniers then
Eric your referral to extent just shows how little you know,
wind blowing the pack together reduces extent, wind blowing the pack apart increases extent
you are betting on the wind
bet on volume eric, that is the actual amount of ice
Of course this year’s low extent was a fluke of weather John – but I’m glad to see you admit it.
Recovery in one year to 2005 level in one season is a bit harsh. From studies I’ve read, the most successful model for predicting next year’s climate is “same as this year”.
You would have blown your dough every year using that method eric
Why hold such a vacuous opinion —’Arctic sea ice low was a fluke’— when a better informed one has been repeatedly detailed and offered,here and elsewhere? When the extent/area was already at record lows for the date BEFORE the proposed ‘natural’ explanation for the final low extent made its mark?
Why claim John ‘admitted’ this years low was a ‘fluke’ when he plainly did not?
Why do you think you are actually holding up your ‘side’ of the ‘debate’,Eric?
I actually have not seen one coherent argument on the Arctic from AGW opponents,yet they act like people who have one. This is their theatre…or blithering oblivion.
Eric, I am glad to see you getting serious at last.
Let me match your bet:
If Arctic sea ice extent next year exceeds the 2005 extent, (probability less than 10%) I will
“admit that maybe I am wrong about CO2, and that we should NOT be looking at means to reduce emissions, as a precautionary measure.”
I can also raise you:
I expect global average temperature to reach a new maximum within the next 3 years. (probability better than 50%)
I have not called you a denier (yet) but, if Arctic sea ice was to recover suddenly, and no new temperature maximum is set, I may be forced to respect your opinions.
Record storm surges now being recorded around NYC
Battery Park,NJ,tide 8″ above record set in 1960′s Hurricane Donna…still rising
Now 16″ above old record,and high tide is not yet arrived..
Water now a foot above all time record set in 1821
Who would have thought, they were driving all those SUVs in 1821.
Yes,Eric,who woulda? 1821 was Dalton Minimum/high global volcanism time,and the Wattsian dogma is ‘cooler is worse’…. along with infantile references to SUVs.
Subways closed for a week as water pours in. Watch what vision comes in from Long Island Sound and Rantan Bay at dawn. Billions in damage.
Interesting storm: modest hurricane finds above average water warmth, evolves to record wind field for latitude, meets northern trough potentiated by Arctic sea ice loss, damage widespread and continuing. Breaks 190 year surge records by large margin in estuaries over 100km range.
This is what Trenberth has stuck his neck out about. Enhancement of events, the ‘icing’ provided by regional change,warmer waters and higher atmospheric water potential. We can be lucky and see these things hit away from large centers,but ‘lucky’ is not the way forward.
2.65′ over record at Battery Park……Meanwhile, local news radio WCBS coverage announces : “Eye on Sandy, coverage brought to you courtesy of Jeep Grand Cherokee” …I kid you not!!!!
Al Gore got caught out playing that kind of game.
He thought he was on a sure thing after Katrina, with his movie.
The next year, from memory, not a single cyclone made landfall on continental USA.
Hype it up folks, because the crash will come hard.
There is no hype eric, this is reality, stop with the self serving idiotic responses, people are dying out there, losing everything and you think poking fun at them is fair game?
Oh,because ‘Al Gore Is Fat’ we can all go home. Trenberth is not playing a game. He is taking a considerable reputational risk because he feels compelled by the physics and observations, and his own high level understanding of the climate system…something that his critics to a man and woman do not possess.
You are missing the point as ever, Eric.
You cannot point to landfalling statistics and just say that because one has a good chance of avoiding landfall,then the enhancement by AGW initiated change of potential hurricane strength can be ignored as a problem now or into the future. Of course,in an emergency response sense storms are not ignored,but we know the difference between 2C and 4C [and the potential emergencies generated by 4C weather] can be addressed by getting off coal sooner. We also know that the cost of emergency response will rise for a host of reasons as well as CC,and the ability of societies to maintain high level response will degrade.
Lesser storm systems will do proportionally more damage on the top of SLR
Hurricane/trop storm annual counts are highly variable,but a trend to more rapid intensification has been observed and the proportion of all storms making it to Cat 3-4s has increased.
It’s also obvious that a lot of hurricane,cyclone and typhoon activity has passed under your radar. It’s not simply about the US east coast.
Hey, I’m fat – don’t be fattist .
RE evaluating Al Gore’s belief in his own statements, I would have taken other points into consideration, such as his use of a front company to purchase a beachfront house, and his mindboggling electricity bill (10s of thousands every month).
Al is not exactly someone who practices what they preach.
Thanks for that ‘look,a squirrel’ offering,Eric.
read first comment, this is bad
No one go to the sceptics blog and explain geoffs monumental cockup to him, I prefer to do that in answering his letter to the editor reply next week
Eric “his mindboggling electricity bill (10s of thousands every month)”
eric’s link .
Gore, author of the best seller An Inconvenient Truth about the dangers of global warming, received much criticism for the high electric use of his 10,000-square-foot historic home in Nashville. He says he’s added 33 rooftop solar panels and seven geothermal wells and buys only renewable energy.
Does he plan to green the California villa,?
Buys only renewable energy, that seems to stuff up your story eric
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